Comments on: NFL Week 16

By: Jim

Jim — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 18:38:28 +0000

Its a long story but its unlikely I will be able to post many, if any, bowl game picks this year here or on any forums.
The short of it is that I have a backer in a high stakes prop bet and at least one, probably more, of the main competitors knows about this blog and it would be disadvantageous for them to find my picks in advanced.
I might be able to squeak a free play post here and there though but it probably won’t be till the bulk of the games if so.

By: TheHotTuna

TheHotTuna — Mon, 24 Dec 2007 14:45:52 +0000

Hey Jim,
Are you planning on posting any bowl game picks??

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 20:30:37 +0000

Pittsburgh one would be hard to gauge because of their poor road performances this season. I might go as low as -4.5 but think we’d see it around 6 if both teams had equal motivation.
The only reason it might be higher is because of the Steelers public perception ratings, they are perceived to be a lot better than they have produced.

Yes on +3 +105 and -2.5 EVEN bet all you can on both so long as they are highly rated books.
Even @ +3 -105 and -2.5 -115 it would stil be playable for a middle attempt. But at the example you gave you have a straight arb with a middle so you’ll certainly want to go heavy on both.

Yes, that game does scare me. I am likely staying away.

By: TheHotTuna

TheHotTuna — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 19:35:03 +0000

The Cleveland game scares me…… Cleveland is 3-4 as a road team this year with their largest win being by only 7 points. Despite the Benals awful performance this year they are till 4-3 at home and their last two home games they won by a margin of 10 and 30 against St Louis and Tennessee respectively.

By: TheHotTuna

TheHotTuna — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 19:22:32 +0000

I am just wondering if this makes sense to you…
If you find a line. For example. Philly +3 +105 and at the same time on another book you find New Orleans -2.5 EVEN does it make sense to bet the maximum on both sides?

By: Hichcoc

Hichcoc — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 19:18:00 +0000

Does the Cle vs. Cinci game scare you any?

By: TheHotTuna

TheHotTuna — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 19:17:48 +0000

Hey Jim,
Without taking into account playoff implications, what do you get as the fair spread in the steelers game?

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 15:11:14 +0000

Thanks, That Jacksonville game was great for me. I was in a $100 pool with 10 people. No one took the Jags except for me.
I feel bad though that the 3 of the 4 picks I liked the most lost this week.
I ended up going 10-4 in the pool and chopping first place.. Go figure my 3 losses where the same as the games I posted here meaning I went 9-1 on the rest of the board, which despite getting some cash back from the pool to off set losses is not all that meaningful having still posted 3 losers which I and several others who followed lost on :).
Oh well glad there has not been all that many weeks like that this season.

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 15:07:01 +0000

Hichcoc,
I slightly lean Philly in this game because I think if both teams were in the same spot as far as play off standings than this spread might be a 1 point spread either way.
What I question is motivation factor and coaching.
I know Andy Reid has dealt with a lot this season but he needs to learn to keep his composure come game time. He’s likely cost his teams game this year by misusing time outs: A good example was week 2 this season. At the end of the half the redskins was 1st and goal and had no time outs. All your hoping for is to hold this team to a FG here. Well they skins run out of time so rush their FG team out on 3rd down. Andy Reid decided to call a time out, it went to commercial and I knew as soon as I saw that, that now that they had a time out and could discuss a safe play they would most certainly run one more play, which they did and scored a touch down.
He also throws challenge flags out of steam and frustration which costs his team time outs they’ll need later.
Personally I think he is a bad coach. He might be the best guy to game plan, get his team ready, and do whatever else it is that coaches do but when it comes to pressure situations forget about it.
The difference in demeanor between Sean Payton and Andy Reid is two opposite sides of the Spectrum. When it comes to the pressure of a big game, I most certainly want Payton.
As much as I lean Philly because I think their probably the correct play if situations where identical, I still might find myself going the opposite come game time.
So in short, I’m torn on this one.

By: Hichcoc

Hichcoc — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 05:36:00 +0000

Hey Jim,

What is your early take on the Philly vs. New Orleans game in regards to a possible SU capacity? Also you were indeed accurate on that Jags prognostication as well.