Comments on: NFL Week 15 Free Picks http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/ sportsbook and gambling related news Thu, 29 Jul 2010 16:33:43 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: test http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-175 test Fri, 14 Dec 2007 21:08:28 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-175 test test

]]> By: Jim http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-174 Jim Fri, 14 Dec 2007 21:06:48 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-174 I shake my head in disbelief each time I look at these odds ?. I figure at the best case scenario on many of these options the house edge is 30% no matter which side you take compared to just a 4.5% edge at most sportsbooks, less at others. After looking over these I just feel like ouch it really don’t matter which teams are picked. I had planned to give a run down which side I though had most value on each game but I’m struggling to do that, so I’ll just show 3 spots that stuck out: I guess under on Bills/Browns might be only a 23% edge to the house making that a decent bet comparatively. The under on the Jets/Patriots might not be as bad as others either, but still is a tough bet. I’m also personally picking against them with standard odds but the Titans bet offers good comparative odds as well. Again these 3 here are still largely –EV but are not as bad as many of the selections. I shake my head in disbelief each time I look at these odds ?. I figure at the best case scenario on many of these options the house edge is 30% no matter which side you take compared to just a 4.5% edge at most sportsbooks, less at others. After looking over these I just feel like ouch it really don’t matter which teams are picked. I had planned to give a run down which side I though had most value on each game but I’m struggling to do that, so I’ll just show 3 spots that stuck out:

I guess under on Bills/Browns might be only a 23% edge to the house making that a decent bet comparatively.

The under on the Jets/Patriots might not be as bad as others either, but still is a tough bet.

I’m also personally picking against them with standard odds but the Titans bet offers good comparative odds as well.

Again these 3 here are still largely –EV but are not as bad as many of the selections.

]]> By: tyl3r http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-173 tyl3r Fri, 14 Dec 2007 19:46:05 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-173 5 min rundown sounds good to me :) http://www.wclc.com/sport_select/pro_line_over_under_game_list.html 5 min rundown sounds good to me :)

http://www.wclc.com/sport_select/pro_line_over_under_game_list.html

]]> By: Jim http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-172 Jim Fri, 14 Dec 2007 18:49:32 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-172 tyl3r, A lot really depends on the odds offered of these type of bets to see where the value is. Otherwise obviously all the big favorites would always be my pick each week. I’m not sure how helpful my advice will be on the proline bets because it would take a lot of time for me to readjust all the lines and spot value. Can you give me a link to the odds offered; I can’t seem to find it. I will not be exact on these and might make some judgments differently than I would had I the time to really go through the analysis on each one as it relates to the adjusted spread, but I’d be okay with giving you a 5 min run down on the card based on the odds offered and my instant reaction to each one. tyl3r,
A lot really depends on the odds offered of these type of bets to see where the value is. Otherwise obviously all the big favorites would always be my pick each week. I’m not sure how helpful my advice will be on the proline bets because it would take a lot of time for me to readjust all the lines and spot value. Can you give me a link to the odds offered; I can’t seem to find it. I will not be exact on these and might make some judgments differently than I would had I the time to really go through the analysis on each one as it relates to the adjusted spread, but I’d be okay with giving you a 5 min run down on the card based on the odds offered and my instant reaction to each one.

]]> By: Jim http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-171 Jim Fri, 14 Dec 2007 18:36:54 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-171 HotTuna, I started to type a rather long response before realizing it would just be easier to explain that I’m not really the best person to talk to regarding prediction models. The system I use was custom developed in 2001. Back at this time I was the one with the cash to finance its developments (it’s an online system that scrapes data and allows for adjustments) but four partners had the most input in its creation. The system starts with giving an output based on four different models. When these numbers are close, what I do is start deleting things to see how it affects the outcome. For example I can delete turnovers, I can delete spread considerations etc. I can then also go into an advanced menu and actually change plays, or even delete and entire game (Some games I might delete are the Colts/Chargers game this year or the Steelers Dolphins game, as they were strange ones). Basically through trial and error I’m able to gain insights on the games, and can spot things I should or maybe should be adjusting for and can do more research on them. I struggle a lot with the math involved in sports betting. I’ve been doing it for years and get by pretty well and can usually come up with the same solutions, not always spot on but close enough, as a mathematician does to a sports betting problem. So basically there are two things I am not very good at holding discussions one when it comes to games with those being, proper math showing the equations and prediction models. If I even try to discuss these it quickly appears that I don’t know what I’m talking about which in some ways is the case and some ways is not. I understand the basics, and through my own long route methods can usually come up with the same solution but my methodology and approach is unorthodox because I both learned a lot through trial and error and also don’t have a background of structured math education. I’m not sure if this will answer your question or not, but I do make lots of adjustments for turnovers. I’ll usually start by looking at teams turnover differential. I’ll also look based on games and remove certain games, if a teams turnover differential is +8 on the season but I see they turned the ball over 6 times In one game, I look to see what conditions might have been different that game, if they were up against a team that has forced the most turnovers on the season and had some injuries, or other factors were involved I might weight that game less. By comparing both teams turnover margins and trying to understand them better I’ll feel more comfortable in assigning a weight to the turnovers. I think also that my models are fairly advanced compared to most basic systems so perhaps that also makes it a bit more difficult. Anyways while I can’t fully explain all this stuff so far all is working well. My worst season since 2002/2003 season was 55.8% (2005-2006 season). Every other season I have been 58.1% or higher for pro ball but did have a small losing year last year in college football which offset a good year in pro ball. Well I guess at the very least this explains a bit about how I work the models but not sure it’s helpful HotTuna,
I started to type a rather long response before realizing it would just be easier to explain that I’m not really the best person to talk to regarding prediction models. The system I use was custom developed in 2001. Back at this time I was the one with the cash to finance its developments (it’s an online system that scrapes data and allows for adjustments) but four partners had the most input in its creation.
The system starts with giving an output based on four different models. When these numbers are close, what I do is start deleting things to see how it affects the outcome. For example I can delete turnovers, I can delete spread considerations etc. I can then also go into an advanced menu and actually change plays, or even delete and entire game (Some games I might delete are the Colts/Chargers game this year or the Steelers Dolphins game, as they were strange ones). Basically through trial and error I’m able to gain insights on the games, and can spot things I should or maybe should be adjusting for and can do more research on them.
I struggle a lot with the math involved in sports betting. I’ve been doing it for years and get by pretty well and can usually come up with the same solutions, not always spot on but close enough, as a mathematician does to a sports betting problem.
So basically there are two things I am not very good at holding discussions one when it comes to games with those being, proper math showing the equations and prediction models. If I even try to discuss these it quickly appears that I don’t know what I’m talking about which in some ways is the case and some ways is not. I understand the basics, and through my own long route methods can usually come up with the same solution but my methodology and approach is unorthodox because I both learned a lot through trial and error and also don’t have a background of structured math education.
I’m not sure if this will answer your question or not, but I do make lots of adjustments for turnovers. I’ll usually start by looking at teams turnover differential. I’ll also look based on games and remove certain games, if a teams turnover differential is +8 on the season but I see they turned the ball over 6 times In one game, I look to see what conditions might have been different that game, if they were up against a team that has forced the most turnovers on the season and had some injuries, or other factors were involved I might weight that game less. By comparing both teams turnover margins and trying to understand them better I’ll feel more comfortable in assigning a weight to the turnovers.
I think also that my models are fairly advanced compared to most basic systems so perhaps that also makes it a bit more difficult. Anyways while I can’t fully explain all this stuff so far all is working well. My worst season since 2002/2003 season was 55.8% (2005-2006 season). Every other season I have been 58.1% or higher for pro ball but did have a small losing year last year in college football which offset a good year in pro ball.
Well I guess at the very least this explains a bit about how I work the models but not sure it’s helpful

]]> By: Jim http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-170 Jim Fri, 14 Dec 2007 18:36:16 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-170 A lot of people have trouble grasping that a -110 teaser is simply a 2 team parlay @ -262 for each leg. This is fairly elementary example below but just to break it down for anyone coming across this later who wants to understand it more. On a normal 2 point 6 team teasers offered at -110 If you're a $100 bettor you'll spend $110 to win $100. Lets say the game started at separate times and you were given the opportunity to bet one leg at a time: If you instead take that same $110 and risk it on the first game Risk $110 @ -262 would pay $42 on a win You now have your $110 and your $42 back. Take $152 you have an bet it @ -262 again Risk $152 @ -262 pays $58 In the end you have $210 if both bets win The same you would have if you did a 2 team 6 point teaser and bet $110 to win $100 The average bettor that does not understand basic strategy behind teasers will find themselves making bets where the average house edge ranges from 19% on the low end, to 51% on the high end for teaser. So to get into the specific answer: You’ll mostly want to stick to 6 point teasers and will always want to cross the 7 and the 3 fully. For for example all underdogs +1.5 to +2.5 and all favorites -7.5 to -8.5 The reason being that 3 and 7 are the most common scores of victory and when crossing them you also cross 2 other key numbers of 4 and 6: Getting onto or just off of the 3 or 7 is usually not enough for it to be profitable. Example teaser +3 to +9 or -7 to -1 Also there is no historical evidence to support that road favorites are profitable in this system. All home dogs +1.5 to +2.5 and all home favorites -7.5 to -8.5 is good guideline for someone to start with. A great book that covers this topic in details is Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. After reading this book it’s easier to grasp the thought process involved and then its becomes possible to start finding teasers outside the starter restrictions that might be helpful. A lot of people have trouble grasping that a -110 teaser is simply a 2 team parlay @ -262 for each leg. This is fairly elementary example below but just to break it down for anyone coming across this later who wants to understand it more.

On a normal 2 point 6 team teasers offered at -110
If you’re a $100 bettor you’ll spend
$110 to win $100.

Lets say the game started at separate times and you were given the opportunity to bet one leg at a time:

If you instead take that same $110 and risk it on the first game
Risk $110 @ -262 would pay $42 on a win
You now have your $110 and your $42 back.

Take $152 you have an bet it @ -262 again
Risk $152 @ -262 pays $58

In the end you have $210 if both bets win
The same you would have if you did a 2 team 6 point teaser and bet $110 to win $100

The average bettor that does not understand basic strategy behind teasers will find themselves making bets where the average house edge ranges from 19% on the low end, to 51% on the high end for teaser.

So to get into the specific answer:
You’ll mostly want to stick to 6 point teasers and will always want to cross the 7 and the 3 fully.
For for example all underdogs +1.5 to +2.5 and all favorites -7.5 to -8.5
The reason being that 3 and 7 are the most common scores of victory and when crossing them you also cross 2 other key numbers of 4 and 6: Getting onto or just off of the 3 or 7 is usually not enough for it to be profitable. Example teaser +3 to +9 or -7 to -1

Also there is no historical evidence to support that road favorites are profitable in this system. All home dogs +1.5 to +2.5 and all home favorites -7.5 to -8.5 is good guideline for someone to start with.

A great book that covers this topic in details is Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. After reading this book it’s easier to grasp the thought process involved and then its becomes possible to start finding teasers outside the starter restrictions that might be helpful.

]]> By: tyl3r http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-169 tyl3r Fri, 14 Dec 2007 17:00:40 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-169 Hello Jim, just a quick question for ya, who do you have as 4 point favs this weekend, not counting the Pats :P Hello Jim, just a quick question for ya, who do you have as 4 point favs this weekend, not counting the Pats :P

]]> By: TheHotTuna http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-167 TheHotTuna Fri, 14 Dec 2007 04:53:04 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-167 Jim, Im just wondering what model you are using for your analysis. Do you use regression models or not because talking with some people I have heard that if using regression you have to reweight the inputs, since to much value is given to things like turnovers and this ends up skewing results. Just wondering because I have ben playing around with some different models. I think the simple models are the most succesful, since they allow the expert to weight some of the more obscure factors that come up in a game on their own terms. I think this gives a good handicapper his best chance of success. Just wondering what you think? Jim,
Im just wondering what model you are using for your analysis. Do you use regression models or not because talking with some people I have heard that if using regression you have to reweight the inputs, since to much value is given to things like turnovers and this ends up skewing results. Just wondering because I have ben playing around with some different models. I think the simple models are the most succesful, since they allow the expert to weight some of the more obscure factors that come up in a game on their own terms. I think this gives a good handicapper his best chance of success. Just wondering what you think?

]]> By: Octopus http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-166 Octopus Fri, 14 Dec 2007 00:24:17 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-166 Jim, I really appreciate your insight-- I think that I've still got a lot to learn and that you are doing a lot to help me along with that-- thank you. I guess I've been blinded to the -283 leg issue per the appeal of the dream of winning the 9/5 3-team bookings or sweethearts I tend to go for... Probably a major flaw in my strategy, but that's something else entirely. As to the Bengals as a teaser issue-- I'm thinking that the 8.5 is right (largely weighted toward the scoring differential and home field advantage as the defenses in this game weigh in at about a 1 (which does nothing) in my formula), but that's quickly becoming a non-issue as I've seen the line move to 9 at Bodog and all the way to 10 at 5 dimes... I'm still thinking of pairing up the Bengals and the Broncos-- but with the new lines, I'm curious to know just were you'd draw the line with the points teased-- 3, 4? I do keep going back to the SF/SEA game (9ers lost 0-24) and I can't help but think that this game might just end up being a re-run of that, but clearly I wouldn't bank on it. Well, anyhow-- thanks again for your insight, it's much appreciated. I wish you luck this week and please, by all means, keep the great advice coming! Jim,

I really appreciate your insight– I think that I’ve still got a lot to learn and that you are doing a lot to help me along with that– thank you. I guess I’ve been blinded to the -283 leg issue per the appeal of the dream of winning the 9/5 3-team bookings or sweethearts I tend to go for… Probably a major flaw in my strategy, but that’s something else entirely.

As to the Bengals as a teaser issue– I’m thinking that the 8.5 is right (largely weighted toward the scoring differential and home field advantage as the defenses in this game weigh in at about a 1 (which does nothing) in my formula), but that’s quickly becoming a non-issue as I’ve seen the line move to 9 at Bodog and all the way to 10 at 5 dimes… I’m still thinking of pairing up the Bengals and the Broncos– but with the new lines, I’m curious to know just were you’d draw the line with the points teased– 3, 4? I do keep going back to the SF/SEA game (9ers lost 0-24) and I can’t help but think that this game might just end up being a re-run of that, but clearly I wouldn’t bank on it.

Well, anyhow– thanks again for your insight, it’s much appreciated. I wish you luck this week and please, by all means, keep the great advice coming!

]]> By: Jim http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-165 Jim Thu, 13 Dec 2007 16:27:44 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/12/nfl-week-15-free-picks/#comment-165 Octupus, I think your thoughts on a lot of these games are right on. The one thing I question though is a lot of your teaser recommendations. You do realize for example a 6.5 point teaser @ -120 is basically just a 2 team parlay with both legs being at -283. So if the 6.5 points is not worth the difference between betting at -110 (52.38% break even) and -283 (73.9% break even) than teasing them is a bad bet. I noticed on some teasers you recommend often times there is alternate lines available as low as -180 for the same spread. So some of them are just way off. I do hope you don't take me mentioning it the wrong way. We're all here to help each other beat the bookies and my response is only meant to hopefully be helpful to you or perhaps to others here who are reading both of our blogs and might be piggy backing your teasers as well. Before reading your comments and checking your site for this weeks picks I had just made this post here on a forum: *********** I really can't find any teaser value this week and the reason that bothers me so much is that TheGreek has been hanging Broncos +1 all week and I've been trying to find another leg to tease that with but I can't find another leg that is even break even or small -EV to but a 6.5 point teaser with them. Can't even find myself a good synthetic version either, how annoying. If anyone has a different take this week where they believe another game has +EV on a 6.5 point teaser than I recommend the Broncos leg. Basically a 6.5 point teaser is a 2 team parlay where you pay -283 on each leg. A lot of people who do teasers don't understand this and they start teasing away things, and unless that 6.5 points is enough to change -110 odds to be worth more than -283 odds than a teaser don't make sense and is a waste of money. Anwyays tonight is a case where Denver +7.5 -283 would actually be a good bet. But I don't have another leg where moving the line 6.5 point justifies the gap between betting at -110 to betting at -283 *********** So I had the topic on mind when I was seeing your teaser. Anyways, I do think you're right on with the 49ers and Bengals analysis. This one is very close but not close enough for me. If you do believe the math is correct at 8 or 8.5 for a true line then I think the teaser would be correct. I actually think this spread is to high and the the Bengals should be 7 point favorites at most in this game. Getting off the 7 and having the rarely meaningful 8 is not enough for me to bet the 49ers though, I don't think anyways. I'm certainly leaning 49ers but not sure I can bring myself to bet it. Octupus,
I think your thoughts on a lot of these games are right on. The one thing I question though is a lot of your teaser recommendations. You do realize for example a 6.5 point teaser @ -120 is basically just a 2 team parlay with both legs being at -283.
So if the 6.5 points is not worth the difference between betting at -110 (52.38% break even) and -283 (73.9% break even) than teasing them is a bad bet.
I noticed on some teasers you recommend often times there is alternate lines available as low as -180 for the same spread. So some of them are just way off.

I do hope you don’t take me mentioning it the wrong way. We’re all here to help each other beat the bookies and my response is only meant to hopefully be helpful to you or perhaps to others here who are reading both of our blogs and might be piggy backing your teasers as well.

Before reading your comments and checking your site for this weeks picks I had just made this post here on a forum:

***********
I really can’t find any teaser value this week and the reason that bothers me so much is that TheGreek has been hanging Broncos +1 all week and I’ve been trying to find another leg to tease that with but I can’t find another leg that is even break even or small -EV to but a 6.5 point teaser with them. Can’t even find myself a good synthetic version either, how annoying.

If anyone has a different take this week where they believe another game has +EV on a 6.5 point teaser than I recommend the Broncos leg.
Basically a 6.5 point teaser is a 2 team parlay where you pay -283 on each leg.

A lot of people who do teasers don’t understand this and they start teasing away things, and unless that 6.5 points is enough to change -110 odds to be worth more than -283 odds than a teaser don’t make sense and is a waste of money.

Anwyays tonight is a case where Denver +7.5 -283 would actually be a good bet. But I don’t have another leg where moving the line 6.5 point justifies the gap between betting at -110 to betting at -283
***********

So I had the topic on mind when I was seeing your teaser.

Anyways, I do think you’re right on with the 49ers and Bengals analysis. This one is very close but not close enough for me. If you do believe the math is correct at 8 or 8.5 for a true line then I think the teaser would be correct. I actually think this spread is to high and the the Bengals should be 7 point favorites at most in this game. Getting off the 7 and having the rarely meaningful 8 is not enough for me to bet the 49ers though, I don’t think anyways. I’m certainly leaning 49ers but not sure I can bring myself to bet it.

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