Your source for Sports Betting News, Bookmaker Reviews and Sportsbook Bonuse
Even with a small losing week last week, -1.25 units, its unfortunate that this season is coming to an end. We’re left with just two more regular season weeks left and I historically don’t pick many games in Week 17’s (only ones that have something real on the line). Anyways, its been a great season. Heading into Week 15 my posted free picks have gone 40-21 for +17.04 units. Lets get into the week 15 predictions now.
2007 NFL Week 15 Betting Predictions with Free Picks
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins
Even through the Ravens are just 2-11 against the spread this season and are coming off a short week. They were blown out at home and they are still getting a lot of respect this week by the oddsmakers. Even though the Dolphins have not won a game all season and really don’t have the players anymore to do much in the NFL, I think giving a team as depleted and poor as the Ravens 3 or more points is just way to much. I expected this line to be a maximum of Ravens -2.5 -115 and I’m pretty sure if it was not for the fact that the Ravens performed so well again the Patriots a couple weeks back than this is exactly what the line would have been.
As much as I hate backing an 0-13 team, I have do it this week.
My prediction Ravens 14 Dolphins 16
My pick: Dolphins +4 -110 Bodog 1.1u to win 1u.
Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns
These two teams have both preformed way over expectation this season, which is reflected in their against the spread records, which are Bills 8-4-1 and Browns 10-3-0. A lot of this has to do with common opponents they have played and have been a lot worst then expected. Although you must give both teams credit for solid performances this season. The Bills have yet to beat a great team and you could say the about the Browns, except the Browns did have a key win against Seattle. The line is pretty much where I expected it to be, but that’s because the Bills have really not been given much credit this season. My predictor after adjustments, actually predicts Browns by just 3.4 in this game. This is obviously an important game as far as the wild card is concerned so that could account for some of the additional points here, but @ 6 -110 or better, I can’t possibly pass on the Bills here.
My prediction: Browns 24 Bills 20
My pick: Bills +6 -110 Just Bet 1.1u to win 1u (Note: this line is also available at The Greek but @ -115)
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Titans have proved to me that they are not the type of team yet, perhaps to they’re to young still, which can overcome adversity. With my predictors showing the Titans as just a 3.2 point favorite and with having no faith they’ll bounce back this week. I’m going with Chiefs in this one.
My prediction: Titans 13 Chiefs 17
My pick: Chiefs +4 -110 Bet Jamaica 1.1u to win 1u
Washington Redskins @ NY Giants
For many years from week 4 through week 13 of the NFL season I’ve ran extremely well. However, each season I tend to dip down the last few weeks and come up strong in the playoffs. I noticed this trend two years ago and spent a lot of time analyzing my bet history to see if their is something to it. What I learned 2 years ago applies here. This is a game where I would be tempted to bet 3 units on the Giants because they should easily be a 7.5 point favorite in this game. The situation that applies here is motivation. The Giants could lose the rest of their games this season and likely have the same seed in the playoffs as they will if they win the rest of their game. This is why the spread is lower than expected. The Giants have injuries to nurse and want to get healthy. With that said, I think this is not the week to rest. The Giants need to go to Buffalo next week and then finish up the season at home against Patriots. While its hard to ever predict what a teams approach might be, I feel there’s enough of a chance that they go all out in this game and then start resting players and getting healthier the next two games.
I’m scaling down this pick none the less, to stay on the conservative side and not let previous year’s mistakes come back and bite me to hard.
My Prediction: Giants 23 Redskins 16
My pick: Giants -4 -110 Bet Jamaica 0.55u to win 0.50u (Note: Same line is available at 5Dimes).
**Please Leave Comments** As always, if you would like to discuss games, say hello, or even disagree with a pick or want to share anything else related to NFL Week 15, please leave comments in the box below.
Pinnacle Sports
15 users commented in " NFL Week 15 Free Picks "
Follow-up comment rss or Leave a TrackbackHey Jim,
What is you initial assessment on the Den. vs. Houston matchup? I know it is foreshadowing a bit but it is mainly for SU pool purposes as opposed to teasing or spread analysis.
Hichcoc,
Its an interesting game. Both teams had potential to be a lot better than they have been this year but both had tons of injuries which held them back.
If the pick is for a pool I don’t think you can go wrong with deciding which side is likely to be the most popular amongst participants and then taking the opposite side.
If you’re not sure or this don’t matter to pools structure then I recommend Denver. I’d set the fair spread on this game as Denver -1.5
Thanks Jim,
That was indeed my inclination as well in regards to siding with Den.I tell ya Jim, that steeler/jag is a toughee to forecast as well.
If I was picking for a pool, I think I would take the Jags for a reason thats probably not so sound betting advice :).
My thoughts are the “Patriots Factor”. The only team to bounce back well after losing to the Pats was the Browns really. Even the teams that played them well, Colts, Eagles, Ravens had down games right after. Even Manning was not immune - he tossed a bunch of INTs the next game.
It just seems like teams get so pumped up and work so hard for that week against the Patriots that they just don’t have it the following week.
Of course this is not tested enough to say its a new trend or anything but if I was forced to pick here it would certainly be the Jags.
On paper it looks like the Jags would be the better pick when everything is compared, but the Steelers are like a Jeckle/Hyde team compared to home and away - the line accurately reflects that as well because overall on a neutral field (as long as it was actual travel for Pittsburgh) I feel the Jags are the better team.
First and foremost– you’re dead on about the Skins v Giants– and that’s even without counting Campbell out for the week. The Skins are going to end the season on a down-note I’m afraid.
Also, I totally agree with you about the “Patriots Factor” (ie, not recovering from and I landed on the Jags too (as always my write ups are on my site). I’ve split with you on a couple other games this week though– particularly on the Ravens / Goldfish game… My take on this one:
Baltimore* 4 MIAMI
Sun, Dec 16 at 10:00 am
Would you believe that Miami has a better pass defense than Baltimore? Well, they do… but that’s about it. This game should be a lock at -4 for the Ravens, but we’d like to see a couple things before we put any action on this line– 1. Is Samari Rolle going to start? 2. Is McClain going to start? 3. IS Todd Heap finally going to get back into the mix? If the answer to two of any of the above three questions is yes, then we’d call the Ravens a lock. Without them, we’d expect the Raves to cover, but our confidence will be diminished.
As to the Titans / Cheifs– the Titans D is back on… at least it was last week and I think that was more about injuries than anything else. I like the Titans against the Cheifs as, while both teams were downwardly mobile for a while, the Titans were so due to injury whereas the Cheifs just suck. Sorry Cheifs fans, that’s life.
As to the Browns games, I’ve got a similar read, but a different booking option… The Browns having the second highest home scoring numbers and the Bills are, in my opinion, not as good as their record. I’ve got the Browns by five, so I get you on Bills+6, but not shopping that book, I’m looking at this one as a Browns teased to an even pick.
As always, if you’d like to check out my picks, I’ve got them posted now at: http://www.picksvspoints.com/Weekly_Picks/Entries/2007/12/11_NFL_Week_15_Predictions.html
I’d love your (everybody’s) feedback.
Keep up the great work– I can’t believe the season’s almost over.
Octupus,
I think your thoughts on a lot of these games are right on. The one thing I question though is a lot of your teaser recommendations. You do realize for example a 6.5 point teaser @ -120 is basically just a 2 team parlay with both legs being at -283.
So if the 6.5 points is not worth the difference between betting at -110 (52.38% break even) and -283 (73.9% break even) than teasing them is a bad bet.
I noticed on some teasers you recommend often times there is alternate lines available as low as -180 for the same spread. So some of them are just way off.
I do hope you don’t take me mentioning it the wrong way. We’re all here to help each other beat the bookies and my response is only meant to hopefully be helpful to you or perhaps to others here who are reading both of our blogs and might be piggy backing your teasers as well.
Before reading your comments and checking your site for this weeks picks I had just made this post here on a forum:
***********
I really can’t find any teaser value this week and the reason that bothers me so much is that TheGreek has been hanging Broncos +1 all week and I’ve been trying to find another leg to tease that with but I can’t find another leg that is even break even or small -EV to but a 6.5 point teaser with them. Can’t even find myself a good synthetic version either, how annoying.
If anyone has a different take this week where they believe another game has +EV on a 6.5 point teaser than I recommend the Broncos leg.
Basically a 6.5 point teaser is a 2 team parlay where you pay -283 on each leg.
A lot of people who do teasers don’t understand this and they start teasing away things, and unless that 6.5 points is enough to change -110 odds to be worth more than -283 odds than a teaser don’t make sense and is a waste of money.
Anwyays tonight is a case where Denver +7.5 -283 would actually be a good bet. But I don’t have another leg where moving the line 6.5 point justifies the gap between betting at -110 to betting at -283
***********
So I had the topic on mind when I was seeing your teaser.
Anyways, I do think you’re right on with the 49ers and Bengals analysis. This one is very close but not close enough for me. If you do believe the math is correct at 8 or 8.5 for a true line then I think the teaser would be correct. I actually think this spread is to high and the the Bengals should be 7 point favorites at most in this game. Getting off the 7 and having the rarely meaningful 8 is not enough for me to bet the 49ers though, I don’t think anyways. I’m certainly leaning 49ers but not sure I can bring myself to bet it.
Jim,
I really appreciate your insight– I think that I’ve still got a lot to learn and that you are doing a lot to help me along with that– thank you. I guess I’ve been blinded to the -283 leg issue per the appeal of the dream of winning the 9/5 3-team bookings or sweethearts I tend to go for… Probably a major flaw in my strategy, but that’s something else entirely.
As to the Bengals as a teaser issue– I’m thinking that the 8.5 is right (largely weighted toward the scoring differential and home field advantage as the defenses in this game weigh in at about a 1 (which does nothing) in my formula), but that’s quickly becoming a non-issue as I’ve seen the line move to 9 at Bodog and all the way to 10 at 5 dimes… I’m still thinking of pairing up the Bengals and the Broncos– but with the new lines, I’m curious to know just were you’d draw the line with the points teased– 3, 4? I do keep going back to the SF/SEA game (9ers lost 0-24) and I can’t help but think that this game might just end up being a re-run of that, but clearly I wouldn’t bank on it.
Well, anyhow– thanks again for your insight, it’s much appreciated. I wish you luck this week and please, by all means, keep the great advice coming!
Jim,
Im just wondering what model you are using for your analysis. Do you use regression models or not because talking with some people I have heard that if using regression you have to reweight the inputs, since to much value is given to things like turnovers and this ends up skewing results. Just wondering because I have ben playing around with some different models. I think the simple models are the most succesful, since they allow the expert to weight some of the more obscure factors that come up in a game on their own terms. I think this gives a good handicapper his best chance of success. Just wondering what you think?
Hello Jim, just a quick question for ya, who do you have as 4 point favs this weekend, not counting the Pats
A lot of people have trouble grasping that a -110 teaser is simply a 2 team parlay @ -262 for each leg. This is fairly elementary example below but just to break it down for anyone coming across this later who wants to understand it more.
On a normal 2 point 6 team teasers offered at -110
If you’re a $100 bettor you’ll spend
$110 to win $100.
Lets say the game started at separate times and you were given the opportunity to bet one leg at a time:
If you instead take that same $110 and risk it on the first game
Risk $110 @ -262 would pay $42 on a win
You now have your $110 and your $42 back.
Take $152 you have an bet it @ -262 again
Risk $152 @ -262 pays $58
In the end you have $210 if both bets win
The same you would have if you did a 2 team 6 point teaser and bet $110 to win $100
The average bettor that does not understand basic strategy behind teasers will find themselves making bets where the average house edge ranges from 19% on the low end, to 51% on the high end for teaser.
So to get into the specific answer:
You’ll mostly want to stick to 6 point teasers and will always want to cross the 7 and the 3 fully.
For for example all underdogs +1.5 to +2.5 and all favorites -7.5 to -8.5
The reason being that 3 and 7 are the most common scores of victory and when crossing them you also cross 2 other key numbers of 4 and 6: Getting onto or just off of the 3 or 7 is usually not enough for it to be profitable. Example teaser +3 to +9 or -7 to -1
Also there is no historical evidence to support that road favorites are profitable in this system. All home dogs +1.5 to +2.5 and all home favorites -7.5 to -8.5 is good guideline for someone to start with.
A great book that covers this topic in details is Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. After reading this book it’s easier to grasp the thought process involved and then its becomes possible to start finding teasers outside the starter restrictions that might be helpful.
HotTuna,
I started to type a rather long response before realizing it would just be easier to explain that I’m not really the best person to talk to regarding prediction models. The system I use was custom developed in 2001. Back at this time I was the one with the cash to finance its developments (it’s an online system that scrapes data and allows for adjustments) but four partners had the most input in its creation.
The system starts with giving an output based on four different models. When these numbers are close, what I do is start deleting things to see how it affects the outcome. For example I can delete turnovers, I can delete spread considerations etc. I can then also go into an advanced menu and actually change plays, or even delete and entire game (Some games I might delete are the Colts/Chargers game this year or the Steelers Dolphins game, as they were strange ones). Basically through trial and error I’m able to gain insights on the games, and can spot things I should or maybe should be adjusting for and can do more research on them.
I struggle a lot with the math involved in sports betting. I’ve been doing it for years and get by pretty well and can usually come up with the same solutions, not always spot on but close enough, as a mathematician does to a sports betting problem.
So basically there are two things I am not very good at holding discussions one when it comes to games with those being, proper math showing the equations and prediction models. If I even try to discuss these it quickly appears that I don’t know what I’m talking about which in some ways is the case and some ways is not. I understand the basics, and through my own long route methods can usually come up with the same solution but my methodology and approach is unorthodox because I both learned a lot through trial and error and also don’t have a background of structured math education.
I’m not sure if this will answer your question or not, but I do make lots of adjustments for turnovers. I’ll usually start by looking at teams turnover differential. I’ll also look based on games and remove certain games, if a teams turnover differential is +8 on the season but I see they turned the ball over 6 times In one game, I look to see what conditions might have been different that game, if they were up against a team that has forced the most turnovers on the season and had some injuries, or other factors were involved I might weight that game less. By comparing both teams turnover margins and trying to understand them better I’ll feel more comfortable in assigning a weight to the turnovers.
I think also that my models are fairly advanced compared to most basic systems so perhaps that also makes it a bit more difficult. Anyways while I can’t fully explain all this stuff so far all is working well. My worst season since 2002/2003 season was 55.8% (2005-2006 season). Every other season I have been 58.1% or higher for pro ball but did have a small losing year last year in college football which offset a good year in pro ball.
Well I guess at the very least this explains a bit about how I work the models but not sure it’s helpful
tyl3r,
A lot really depends on the odds offered of these type of bets to see where the value is. Otherwise obviously all the big favorites would always be my pick each week. I’m not sure how helpful my advice will be on the proline bets because it would take a lot of time for me to readjust all the lines and spot value. Can you give me a link to the odds offered; I can’t seem to find it. I will not be exact on these and might make some judgments differently than I would had I the time to really go through the analysis on each one as it relates to the adjusted spread, but I’d be okay with giving you a 5 min run down on the card based on the odds offered and my instant reaction to each one.
5 min rundown sounds good to me
http://www.wclc.com/sport_select/pro_line_over_under_game_list.html
I shake my head in disbelief each time I look at these odds ?. I figure at the best case scenario on many of these options the house edge is 30% no matter which side you take compared to just a 4.5% edge at most sportsbooks, less at others. After looking over these I just feel like ouch it really don’t matter which teams are picked. I had planned to give a run down which side I though had most value on each game but I’m struggling to do that, so I’ll just show 3 spots that stuck out:
I guess under on Bills/Browns might be only a 23% edge to the house making that a decent bet comparatively.
The under on the Jets/Patriots might not be as bad as others either, but still is a tough bet.
I’m also personally picking against them with standard odds but the Titans bet offers good comparative odds as well.
Again these 3 here are still largely –EV but are not as bad as many of the selections.
test
Leave A Reply