Coming off a perfect football week (2-0 NCAAF and 4-0 in NFL) were ready to roll with NFL week 14 picks and betting predictions, but first a quick update on year to date stats: For the 2007 NFL football season posted free picks have gone 39-19 for +18.29 units. Okay lets get into week 14 starting with a teaser bet.

Teaser Leg #1 Titans +7.5
When I first looked at this game, I expected that it would be an even match up with the Titans having the edge because of home field advantage. However, after breaking down the game and using several predictor models I was fairly surprised to come out with a fair line here of about Chargers -3 @ Tennessee before accounting for injuries. With the Titans getting healthier I think this line is about right where its at now, but straight up I would lean Chargers a little bit.
After going through the math here I think the best play in this game is a teaser with either team being +7.5 or more. The options available to me is on the Titans and with them being the home team I actually prefer that its structured this way where they’re the easier teasers play.

Prediction: Titans 21 | Chargers 20

Teaser Leg #2 Minnesota Vikings -1
While there is not much statistical evidence to support this teaser has the proper value @ -120, if the spread is actually -7.5 it doesn’t matter a lot to me in this spot. This line has reached 9 many places and honestly I think the Vikings have value here at any line -9.5 or better. Getting them down to -1 in a teaser will show to have value when the Money line odds are released tomorrow. I’d expect the market to price the Vikings fair value at around a 79+% win percentage which is more than enough for this to fall under a proper strategy play. Unfortunately those reading this later in the week might not be able to take advantage of this teaser because I expect TheGreek’s line will likely catch up to others lines on this game. If that’s the case I would still consider teasing this down to -2.5 @ -120 or better (perhaps 5 dimes will have that option later in the week). Pretty much those reading this early should jump on this teaser as soon as possible to prevent it not being available to them later in the week.

Prediction: Vikings 24 | 49ers 14

My Pick: 2 Team 6.5 point teaser (TheGreek) 1.2 u to win 1u.

**Update Tuesday December 4 @ 6:45 PM**

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
When I capped this game prior to the lines coming out I had Seattle as a 6.5 point favorite. Most of my predictors ran in the range of Seattle -4.5 to -6.5 with Seattle getting healthier I figured the higher end of the predictor seems about right. Tyl3r’s questions on this game in the comments box had me revisiting this line to see that the line has moved to +7 and +7.5 is available @ Bet Jamaica using a ½ point purchase. This now has to much value for me to pass on so I’m making it a 1 unit play.

The best way I can understand the line move is to say that its likely Seattle has become over valued after performing well on the road and pulling off a big win as a dog. Arizona had a pitiful performance two weeks ago and got the help of a bad call last week which probably has them a bit under valued right now. I have this one as a high push probability at the 7 which is why I went with the half point. Seattle likely covers -7.5 about 42% of the time in my estimation, so we’ll win this bet 58% of the time and have a break even rate of 54.55%.

Prediction: Seattle 24 Cardinals 20

My Pick: Cardinals +7.5 -120 (Bet Jamaica w/ ½ point purchase) 1.2u to win 1u

For right now this is all I like but as always I’ll update this blog through out the week, usually having a play or two before game time, and will mark any updates with a time and date stamp in bold text.

Losing Week 14 Completed Bet: I had predicted the Bears 19 Redskins 17 and had a bet of Bears +3 -105 (Bookmaker) 1.05u to win 1u which lost. Because this games write up was so long, compared to games we’re discussing now, I decided to put it off to the side for now and will post it back here unedited when the week is complete. It will obviously be counted in my record which is why i have it here in bold now.

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