UFC 78 Odds and Analysis
(odds courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook)

Main Event: Michael Bisping (+230) vs. Rashad Evans (-270)

With UFC 78 taking place on Saturday at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ, MMA fans are discussing what many are viewing as a sub-par fight card. For the second time in the last three UFC pay-per-views, the main event is a non-title bout (the first being UFC 76 where Keith Jardine defeated Chuck Liddell in the main event). This time around, it’s two undefeated 205 pounders going at it in Michael Bisping and Rashad Evans. Bisping is coming off an extremely controversial victory over Matt Hamill at UFC 75, while Evans is trying to rebound from a draw at UFC 73 against Tito Ortiz. While both men feature zeroes in the loss column, both are looking to rebound from controversy in their previous bouts with a major statement this time around.

During the 3rd round against Ortiz, Evans seemed to gain confidence and began to take control after looking shaky earlier on. I think this was big for his confidence, and he should come out and control the pace from the get-go in this one. Bisping looked absolutely atrocious against Hamill, and would have lost if not for the seeing eye dogs that must have been sitting beside the judges who scored the fight for Bisping. For Evans to be a winning play, he must win almost 75% of the time, and I don’t see that being a problem here. Don’t go crazy here, but Evans is stronger than Hamill, who gave Bisping trouble on the ground, so I just don’t see Bisping winning this one. Make a play, but not to the point where you’re bridge jumping if Evans gets upset.

Thiago Silva (+110) vs. Houston Alexander (-150)

A lot of people are buying into the hype of Alexander (8-1), who through two fights in the UFC, has spent a total of 1:49 in the Octagon. Houston was supposed to be fodder for Keith Jardine on his way to a title shot, but ended up knocking Jardine out in devastating fashion at the 48 second mark. Following that, he stopped Alessio Sakara at the 1:01 mark at UFC 75. Needless to say, Alexander’s time in the Octagon has been limited. Silva (11-0) is equally inexperienced in the UFC, but has more MMA experience in a shorter time span than Alexander. While Alexander has lethal striking, I think Silva will be able to take him to the later rounds and wear him down. The majority of bettors seem to feel the same way, as the line on Silva has moved from +130 to +110, while Alexander’s has moved from -170 to -150. I don’t see this moving any further, but if you like Silva, get the money down now in case it does.

With the undercard fights, I’d stay away from Karo Parisyan (-365) vs. Ryo Chonan (+255). Parisyan should win handily, but there’s just not enough value here. Rounding out the fights that 5Dimes is offering odds on is Frankie Edgar (-120) vs. Spencer Fisher (-120). While this fight is basically a coin flip with a lot of juice, I still like Fisher’s experience to prevail here. Edgar is the only man to defeat Tyson Griffin, but Fisher has shown a lot of heart in two memorable wars with Sam Stout, and I like Fisher by decision.