Comments on: NFL Week 13 Betting Predictions http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/ sportsbook and gambling related news Thu, 29 Jul 2010 16:40:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Jim http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-139 Jim Tue, 04 Dec 2007 07:38:34 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-139 Exactly. This was a good one despite it not having been close. An example at $100 base so its easy to understand: Bet $105 to win $100 on Ravens +$13 @ Legendz Bet $102.50 to win $102.50 on Pats -12.5 @ Pinnacle. If Pats win by 13 I win $102.50 at one site and push at the other. If they don't win by 13 i have it set up in a way I lose $2.50. So I'm risking $2.50 to win $102.50 Risk 1 to get 41x more that pats win by a TD and 2 FGs in the 1st half. Exactly.
This was a good one despite it not having been close.

An example at $100 base so its easy to understand:

Bet $105 to win $100 on Ravens +$13 @ Legendz
Bet $102.50 to win $102.50 on Pats -12.5 @ Pinnacle.

If Pats win by 13 I win $102.50 at one site and push at the other.

If they don’t win by 13 i have it set up in a way I lose $2.50.

So I’m risking $2.50 to win $102.50
Risk 1 to get 41x more
that pats win by a TD and 2 FGs in the 1st half.

]]> By: TheHotTuna http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-138 TheHotTuna Tue, 04 Dec 2007 01:20:08 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-138 Can you explain exactly how a middle works? Is it just when you bet a game and then bet the other way when the line changes hoping the score falls in the middle, so you just risk the juice to win both bets? Can you explain exactly how a middle works?
Is it just when you bet a game and then bet the other way when the line changes hoping the score falls in the middle, so you just risk the juice to win both bets?

]]> By: Jim http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-137 Jim Tue, 04 Dec 2007 00:30:22 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-137 nothing for me on tonights game. I did grab a middle early this morning on the first half of this game. Pats -12.5 +100 Pinnacle Ravens +13 -105 risking 0.125 units to win 5.125 units I don't really like anything as far as spreads and totals are concerned. nothing for me on tonights game. I did grab a middle early this morning on the first half of this game.
Pats -12.5 +100 Pinnacle
Ravens +13 -105

risking 0.125 units to win 5.125 units

I don’t really like anything as far as spreads and totals are concerned.

]]> By: Jim http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-136 Jim Mon, 03 Dec 2007 06:04:13 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-136 Thanks for the congrats. This was a good week I went perfect in college too and also happened to be $23 to win $1000 on Pittsburgh over WVU which is something I would normally never do but kept thinking of all the #2 teams losing this season. Sorry for the brag but its very exciting to bounce back so strong after the first poor week in a long time and I can't help myself. Last year sites were very slow posting bowl lines with the year before being brutal for the books, but this year Bookmaker.com already has lines up for the BCS games - I don't have much thoughts on those just yet. Tomorrow I don't like much right now but I might take a look closer to game time tomorrow and see if anything looks interesting with alt lines or perhaps props. If I come up with anything I'll be sure to post it. Thanks for the congrats. This was a good week I went perfect in college too and also happened to be $23 to win $1000 on Pittsburgh over WVU which is something I would normally never do but kept thinking of all the #2 teams losing this season.
Sorry for the brag but its very exciting to bounce back so strong after the first poor week in a long time and I can’t help myself.

Last year sites were very slow posting bowl lines with the year before being brutal for the books, but this year Bookmaker.com already has lines up for the BCS games - I don’t have much thoughts on those just yet.

Tomorrow I don’t like much right now but I might take a look closer to game time tomorrow and see if anything looks interesting with alt lines or perhaps props. If I come up with anything I’ll be sure to post it.

]]> By: TheHotTuna http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-135 TheHotTuna Mon, 03 Dec 2007 04:54:50 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-135 Well done once again Jim. congrats Do you have a Monday bet or are you staying away from this game. [You might not want to risk your perfect week ;)] Also when do they usually come out with the bowl lines? Well done once again Jim. congrats
Do you have a Monday bet or are you staying away from this game. [You might not want to risk your perfect week ;)] Also when do they usually come out with the bowl lines?

]]> By: Jim http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-134 Jim Sun, 02 Dec 2007 09:26:35 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-134 Thanks everyone for the comments. This week I had been looking to get a better line on the Falcons but it never got to where I had anticipated it might. It looks like it will be a light Sunday for me with having action only on the Jags and on the 2 team teaser i just added. I might have some 4pm games to pick but I doubt I'll even make it back online before the 1PM games start. Good luck everyone on your plays this Sunday. Thanks everyone for the comments.

This week I had been looking to get a better line on the Falcons but it never got to where I had anticipated it might.

It looks like it will be a light Sunday for me with having action only on the Jags and on the 2 team teaser i just added.

I might have some 4pm games to pick but I doubt I’ll even make it back online before the 1PM games start.

Good luck everyone on your plays this Sunday.

]]> By: Hichcoc http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-133 Hichcoc Fri, 30 Nov 2007 16:06:26 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-133 Thanks Jim, Once again i appreciate the input. Thanks Jim,

Once again i appreciate the input.

]]> By: Jim http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-132 Jim Fri, 30 Nov 2007 07:42:03 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-132 My predictors all have bears anywhere from -0.4 to -3.3 so I would normally say there is a lot of value in the Bears line but with the Giants having been embarrassed last week they’ll likely come out strong here. The Bears are coming off an emotional win and while I might say they are due for let down here there is also a chance this will give them a spark as there is still some room for them in the wild card race with no one really running away with that. It’s obviously a very important game for both teams and I hate betting on the Giants on the road this late in the seasons based on past years, and I hate betting on Grossman who is prone to turnovers against a sack oriented defense. If I have to pick it would be Bears, but at the same time It would not shock me if they are blown out. My predictors all have bears anywhere from -0.4 to -3.3 so I would normally say there is a lot of value in the Bears line but with the Giants having been embarrassed last week they’ll likely come out strong here. The Bears are coming off an emotional win and while I might say they are due for let down here there is also a chance this will give them a spark as there is still some room for them in the wild card race with no one really running away with that.

It’s obviously a very important game for both teams and I hate betting on the Giants on the road this late in the seasons based on past years, and I hate betting on Grossman who is prone to turnovers against a sack oriented defense.

If I have to pick it would be Bears, but at the same time It would not shock me if they are blown out.

]]> By: Jim http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-131 Jim Fri, 30 Nov 2007 07:17:19 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-131 Good to hear you got that in and also glad the Bret Farve injury did not hurt us. I had been leaning on taking Dallas -6.5 all week but really felt it cold go either way, so I was hoping that the line would move off 7 so I could get either -6.5 on one side or +7.5 on the other at a reasonable price. When late the only option that was available to me was @ -120 I really felt the extra FG was worth it a lot here and I preferred it going up then down. Of course I’m happy it worked out, that was not looking so good there at half time. I also jumped on the Packers on the 2nd half at some good odds so it worked out nice. As far as total bets go, I do place quite a few of them but usually they are 2nd half wagers or steam plays. For example this week I got the Bengals and Steelers under 48 which was only available for about 10 minutes before it was bet all the way down to 44.5 and now has settled around 45 most places. I obviously don’t post these or count them in the record on my blog because they have no value to readers when there only available for a matter of seconds. Every now and then I’ll spot and over under bet I like on my own, but capping these is not my speciality. You’ll see I post these occasionally. For player match ups I do a lot of these in baseball mostly because the time of the year when only baseball is going things are much calmer and I have more time to look into these match ups in depth. These for football however can be very profitable. I’ve heard of people who do very well specializing in just that. For me it’s just a time issue. Football and college hoops are my primary sources of all income that I earn so I kind of just need to pick my poison. I spend so much time this time of year breaking down games, reading news, following lines, shopping for lines, looking for bonuses and all those other things that I just have not really had time to really analyze the player match up bets. This is probably because I never have participated in fantasy sports before of any kind. I understand basically how it works but that’s all, I would be totally dead money in a league. One thing I have been getting in the habit of is taking a look at the Greeks imaginary match ups. I’ve found quite a few bets I’ve liked in recent weeks for those. For correlated parlays I do bet these when software allows but I am a bit limited in spotting value on these because I am not very good at capping totals. Good to hear you got that in and also glad the Bret Farve injury did not hurt us. I had been leaning on taking Dallas -6.5 all week but really felt it cold go either way, so I was hoping that the line would move off 7 so I could get either -6.5 on one side or +7.5 on the other at a reasonable price. When late the only option that was available to me was @ -120 I really felt the extra FG was worth it a lot here and I preferred it going up then down. Of course I’m happy it worked out, that was not looking so good there at half time. I also jumped on the Packers on the 2nd half at some good odds so it worked out nice.
As far as total bets go, I do place quite a few of them but usually they are 2nd half wagers or steam plays. For example this week I got the Bengals and Steelers under 48 which was only available for about 10 minutes before it was bet all the way down to 44.5 and now has settled around 45 most places. I obviously don’t post these or count them in the record on my blog because they have no value to readers when there only available for a matter of seconds.
Every now and then I’ll spot and over under bet I like on my own, but capping these is not my speciality. You’ll see I post these occasionally.
For player match ups I do a lot of these in baseball mostly because the time of the year when only baseball is going things are much calmer and I have more time to look into these match ups in depth. These for football however can be very profitable. I’ve heard of people who do very well specializing in just that. For me it’s just a time issue. Football and college hoops are my primary sources of all income that I earn so I kind of just need to pick my poison. I spend so much time this time of year breaking down games, reading news, following lines, shopping for lines, looking for bonuses and all those other things that I just have not really had time to really analyze the player match up bets. This is probably because I never have participated in fantasy sports before of any kind. I understand basically how it works but that’s all, I would be totally dead money in a league.
One thing I have been getting in the habit of is taking a look at the Greeks imaginary match ups. I’ve found quite a few bets I’ve liked in recent weeks for those.
For correlated parlays I do bet these when software allows but I am a bit limited in spotting value on these because I am not very good at capping totals.

]]> By: Hichcoc http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-130 Hichcoc Fri, 30 Nov 2007 06:53:09 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week13/#comment-130 Hey Jim, What is your initial assessment on the Chi vs. NY Giants? Hey Jim,

What is your initial assessment on the Chi vs. NY Giants?

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