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I’m a bit early this week with my NFL week 13 picks and prediction posts, but I’m more than ready to move on after a brutal weekend. College ball is usually my best sport, although this week it cost me and my free picks. Last weeks NFL free picks were also came in at a loss, dropping 1.08% (1.08u) after a 2-2 week. My 2 losses were not even close, I got totally blown out on them. Heading into week 13 the overall 2007 NFL YTD record is still great at 35-19 for +14.29 units of profit, this is 64.81% straight on win/loss and 63.66% based on weight. This week we’ll look to move forward in the right directions.
As always I’ll date my initial entries and add on pick and prediction entries in bold making picks through out the week using the current lines available.
Initial Entry: Monday November 26 – Using Week 13 early lines which just came out late last night to early this morning.
We have some big games this week with potential playoff implications such as Packer/Cowboys, Colts/Jags, Lions @ Vikings, and a few others still important but not quite as big.
When looking at the early line there was one game that stood out the most to me:
Jacksonville Jaguars +7 @ Indianapolis Colts -7
These two teams met in week 7 and the Colts blew the Jags out in Jacksonville 29-7, but this was a game where the David Garrard went out in the 2nd quarter with an ankle injury and Quinn Gray made his debut where he went 9 for 24 for just 56 yards and through 2 interceptions. This accounted for 2 of the 3 Jags turnovers in this game. In this game the Colts were a 3 point favorite on the road and it was in the early stages of the Colts dealing with injuries, their injury situation got much worse in the following weeks, also worth noting is the Colts were coming off a bye that week as well. I’m okay with writing this game off as there were a lot of circumstances that easily account for the Colts blow out.
These two teams have obviously changed now as the line pretty much reflects. If the Colts were a 3 point favorite in Jacksonville they probably would have been a 9 point favorite if that game was in Indy back in week 7. The situations have obviously changed a lot as the Colts are now the team dealing with injuries and have been slumping as of late where the Jags have Girard back and have been playing very solid ball.
The Colts have a history of playing very close in division games. I am not sure if this relates to their opponents being geared up more, prepared better or its Dungy’s somewhat conservative style where he knows how important it is to protect the win in these games. Its likely a mix of all those factors but even when the Colts were the dominate regular season team in recent years, they’ve many times found themselves in close games decided by 7 or less against division opponents.
I’m really sure where this line will end up in terms of lines moves, but I’m not willing to risk letting the opportunity to get Jags +7.5 -120 or better not being available to me later in the week.
Bet Jamaica and TheGreek are both sites that will sell points surrounding the 7 for just 10 cents each. Bet Jamaica has the Jags +7 —–110 (-115 @ The Greek) so I deiced to use their site for entering my Jags bet.
My Prediction: Colts 24 Jags 20
My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 -120 (Bet Jamaica w/ half point buy) 1.2u to win 1u
There are many other week 13 games on my radar and when I bet them I’ll make an update here dated and time stamped in bold. For right now I don’t see any need to rush on any other particular lines this week.
Update Thursday November 29, 2007 5:10 PM EST
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
With this game not being on TV for a lot of people, I and not knowing for sure a lot of people will see my post in the next 3 hours I’ll just post my pick for right now. If anyone wants to discuss this game we can do it in comments box below. I am a bit pressed for time with some internet work I’m doing here but I’ll check the comments a few more times before the game.
My Pick: Packers +10.5 -170 using the alternate line @ TheGreek 1.7u to win 1u
Update: 4:25 AM Sunday
I’m adding a two team 6 point teaser bet -110 @ Bookmaker.com
Teaser Leg #1: Jets +7.5
Teaser Leg #2 Bears +7.5
My Stake: 1.1 units to win 1u.
Update 12:45 PM Sunday
Buffalo Bills @ Washington Redskins
I had really planned to lay off this game but with the line movements I just couldn’t help myself. The line is currently listed at +6.5 +100 @ Bet Jamaica. I decided to spend the 20 cents to move the line through the 7 and get the Bills @ +7.5 -120. This is a game that was on my radar earlier in the week but I had really wanted to see the Bills bounce back before placing anymore action on them, the reason I feel forced to take them though is the most any of my math models favor Washington by is 6, and the majority of them favor the Redskin by just 4.5 to 5 points.
My pick: Buffalo Bills +7.5 -120 (Bet Jamaica) 1.2u to win 1u
I need to get some sleep so no write up on this pick but this is just a basic strategy teaser that crosses both the 3 and 7.
**** Please Leave Comments **** If you have thoughts on games, agree with picks, disagree with picks, have betting questions or just want to say hello go ahead and post in the comments box below. I’m also happy to give my take on other games when requested. All comments will generally be responded to.
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24 users commented in " NFL Week 13 Betting Predictions "
Follow-up comment rss or Leave a TrackbackAnyone enjoying these free picks who would like to help spread the word about them can take a min to digg this page on digg at http://digg.com/football/NFL_Week_13_Predictions
Hey Jim,
dugg the scoop, I hope you’ll get the diggs you deserve! That was a rough week for both of us, but I loved hitting my Turkey-Day-Parlay! Nothing says Thanksgiving like green stuffing!
You think that we will see a repeat of last weeks game from Anthony Gonzalez? I’m looking to him to make that 7 point spread work; for that matter, if Harrison is spitting time with Gonzalez I think 7 seems reasonable…
Also, I posted my early picks on my site– I’m particularly interested in your takes on a couple underdogs straight up: Houston and Cleveland– I’m still running the numbers on these, but looking at the pointspreads, those two looked flipped to me.
Thanks for your insight.
Hey Jim,
Who are you leaning towards on the San Fran vs. Carolina game this upcoming week?
Hichcoc,
The 49ers/Panthers is a tough one. Both teams are awful but the panthers got blown out last week after Testaverde was scratched late to injury. The 49ers got a fluke win on the road where they scored, I believe, 24 points off turnovers. I really don’t have a lean on this game but If I had to pick I suppose it would be Panthers -2.5 @ -115 or better or 49ers at +3.5 -115 or better, anything between that I am flipping a coin I guess.
Also I don’t see any real need to rush; I would make sure that at least Testeverde or Carr was in for Carolina which of course is likely.
Octopus,
First of all thanks for the Digg and good luck this coming week.
For the Titans/Texans match up I have the Titans as a 3.3 point favorite but admit I did not dig deep on this game. I am fairly sour on both these two teams right now, I really expected last week would be the week the Titans bounce back now I am not really sure what to expect out of them. The last couple weeks I’ve kind of expected the Texans would show up as well but so far that has not happened either. To this point right now basically all I can comments is that I think the fair line for this game is Titans -3.5 +100.
As far as Cleveland goes I believe they are solid teaser material this week. I actually have them as a 1.5 point favorite here and I really don’t see that though as enough of an edge to take them straight up on the road, but I would certainly lean in that direction.
I’m still working out some math here but might have the Browns posted in a teaser play soon.
Oh as far as what you actually said in terms of straight up, I missed that part at first, Texans I’d consider a good play at +170 or better (Pinnacle has them at +181 right now and 5Dimes at +175).
This week I am going to do some more work later in the week and am kind of sitting on some of these early lines.
Actually let me ask you guys or anyone else reading this a question. Do any of you have thoughts on Jets @ Dolphins game?
Hello Jim,
Was wondering about your thoughts on the Bucs and Saints game. Both coming off of wins, but Bucs are on the road. The Saints have been up and down all season and I’m actually leaning towards the Bucs even if they are on the road.
tyl3r, I agree although the Buccs did look absolutely terrible last week and got lucky to get a few turnovers early.
I am going to hold off on this game to see if there might be something more to the Garcia injury. I’m a bit concerned he might play hurt and just hand off the ball as he was trying to do for a while there last game.
If everyone is healthy then at +3.5 or better I’ll lean Buccs - but unless I’m sure Garcia is healthy i’ll lay off it.
Jim,
Looking at the Dolphins Jets game i am tempted to put the Jets in a two game teaser at plus eight, since the dolphins cant seem to score more then one TD in a game.
I was looking at:
two game teaser
Jets +8
Pittsburgh -.5
-110
tell me what you think?
Jim,
Im very interested in your take on the Philly game and the Dallas game. I was expecting the line to be Philly -5.5 at least. What do you make of this game. Did last weeks close game only happen because the players were playing extra hard due to being counted out? Also I can never seem to stay away from Arizona games when their home. Im just wondering what would you expect the line would have been if this game were being played in Cleveland. Just interested?
HotTuna,
The teaser you suggested is not so bad as a six point teaser at Bookmaker.com @ -110 Its probably slight –EV with the reason being that historical evidence does not quite support teasing from the 7 to 1 alone to reach the break even needed. I suggest bookmaker because there the only site I see that has Jets +2, so only a 6 point teaser would be required there. Even though its –EV its not as bad as blindly choosing a side which a lot of people do so it depends what your motivation is. If you motivation is to make this bet hundreds of times in similar situation and make small profits that will add up over the long haul then this would not be a good play. If your just looking to gamble a bit, I see how this could be a better than usually slight –EV bet.
If anyone reading this don’t understand the math behind teasers here is an article on it:
http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/09/teasers/
The Eagles have been streaky all year, last week its could easily have been a little bit of both, Eagles geared up and Pats looking past them facing a back up QB. I still think the Eagles have the better shot in this game but not by as wide of a margin as one would expect. I had this line at Eagles -3.3 so about -3 -120 to -3.5 +100 range being about fair without making any deductions for Feely instead of McNabb (not sure who is starting this week). Despite a solid performance last week, interceptions aside, I still think Feely is worth a bit less than McNabb. Perhaps the line is correct but with the Eagles solid performance last week and the line not being shaded much as a result it just kind of feels to me like Vegas is begging for Eagles action. While I still lean that way I am going to take time to digest this one and also see if McNabb is still doubtful for this game.
As far as the Dallas game goes, I strongly lean Dallas, almost enough to bet it, but I want to wait and see where the line falls closer to game time. I might go the opposite way still if the line reaches +7.5 for Packers. This game I am kind of torn both ways but will be looking at more tomorrow and trying to decide, I’ll post updates before game time if I bet anything on it.
Browns -5.5 to -6 would be my projection if the game was in Cleveland.
Jim
Just wondring is their ever a positive play for betting pleasers. Laying extra points for higher odds or is it always a sucker bet?
Its very hard to find pleaser’s where manually “if bet” the alternate lines offered (when the games don’t start at the same time) would not come out better. So yeah generally speaking pleaser bets have the largest house edge of all the exotic bet types offered.
There are some rare occasions where it comes out better on the pleaser line. I had one of those last week where the pleaser did not show to be mathematically EV by any historical data, but the to sides taken i had reason enough to suspect were the right side and the pleaser option actually came out better than what was offered to me. I might find spots like that every 6 weeks or so and even when i do its marginal at best.
Here’s what I’m posting on the Jets Dolphins game:
Pick v Spread: Miami
MIAMI 1.5 New York (NYJ)*
Sun, Dec 2 at 10:00 am
Notes: If you hadn’t noticed, Miami’s defense is fairly solid– frankly, in this case it’s shocking that the team with the worst record in the league, a team that is close to achieving a perfect-imperfect season should be actually pretty solid anywhere… It’s almost inexplicable… until you look at the Dolphins offense. This is in no uncertain terms, a turd of a game. The Dolphins lead the Jets in all categories except passing yards, but looking closer at those stats, in all categories the disparity between the teams is minimal at best. The one real advantage either team has over the other is that the Dolphins pass defense is clearly superior to the Jets. I like the Dolphins in this game, if for no other reason, they don’t want to go without a single win all season and this game is probably their best chance to achieve that goal. The Dolphins will leave nothing on the field, the Jets may just get run out of town on this one.
As always, I’m posting picks for all games on my site. Feel free to check them out.
Thanks for the write up. I am leaning Dolphins also but at the same time I am where there offense is going to come from. Its pretty sad to that this is more or less a must win for both teams.
The Jets don’t want to be the only team the Dolphins beat and the Dolphins don’t want to go 0-16. Very interesting game, I am not sure I will bet it yet or not but it will be interesting to follow.
Great last minute pick Jim. Barely got the bet in time. Im lucky for a second I wasnt going to play the extra half point because i didn’t have as much money on my one book that was offering that bet but then I figured I would end up kicking myself if i didn’t…. Also I like St Louis and Im just wondering if you have any thoughts on that game? A couple more questions, sorry if im bothering you :). Do you ever bet Over/Unders? Are fantasy H2H bets sucker bets or are they ever positive investments? Do you ever bet semi correlated parlays like favorite and over or dog and under?
Hey Jim,
What is your initial assessment on the Chi vs. NY Giants?
Good to hear you got that in and also glad the Bret Farve injury did not hurt us. I had been leaning on taking Dallas -6.5 all week but really felt it cold go either way, so I was hoping that the line would move off 7 so I could get either -6.5 on one side or +7.5 on the other at a reasonable price. When late the only option that was available to me was @ -120 I really felt the extra FG was worth it a lot here and I preferred it going up then down. Of course I’m happy it worked out, that was not looking so good there at half time. I also jumped on the Packers on the 2nd half at some good odds so it worked out nice.
As far as total bets go, I do place quite a few of them but usually they are 2nd half wagers or steam plays. For example this week I got the Bengals and Steelers under 48 which was only available for about 10 minutes before it was bet all the way down to 44.5 and now has settled around 45 most places. I obviously don’t post these or count them in the record on my blog because they have no value to readers when there only available for a matter of seconds.
Every now and then I’ll spot and over under bet I like on my own, but capping these is not my speciality. You’ll see I post these occasionally.
For player match ups I do a lot of these in baseball mostly because the time of the year when only baseball is going things are much calmer and I have more time to look into these match ups in depth. These for football however can be very profitable. I’ve heard of people who do very well specializing in just that. For me it’s just a time issue. Football and college hoops are my primary sources of all income that I earn so I kind of just need to pick my poison. I spend so much time this time of year breaking down games, reading news, following lines, shopping for lines, looking for bonuses and all those other things that I just have not really had time to really analyze the player match up bets. This is probably because I never have participated in fantasy sports before of any kind. I understand basically how it works but that’s all, I would be totally dead money in a league.
One thing I have been getting in the habit of is taking a look at the Greeks imaginary match ups. I’ve found quite a few bets I’ve liked in recent weeks for those.
For correlated parlays I do bet these when software allows but I am a bit limited in spotting value on these because I am not very good at capping totals.
My predictors all have bears anywhere from -0.4 to -3.3 so I would normally say there is a lot of value in the Bears line but with the Giants having been embarrassed last week they’ll likely come out strong here. The Bears are coming off an emotional win and while I might say they are due for let down here there is also a chance this will give them a spark as there is still some room for them in the wild card race with no one really running away with that.
It’s obviously a very important game for both teams and I hate betting on the Giants on the road this late in the seasons based on past years, and I hate betting on Grossman who is prone to turnovers against a sack oriented defense.
If I have to pick it would be Bears, but at the same time It would not shock me if they are blown out.
Thanks Jim,
Once again i appreciate the input.
Thanks everyone for the comments.
This week I had been looking to get a better line on the Falcons but it never got to where I had anticipated it might.
It looks like it will be a light Sunday for me with having action only on the Jags and on the 2 team teaser i just added.
I might have some 4pm games to pick but I doubt I’ll even make it back online before the 1PM games start.
Good luck everyone on your plays this Sunday.
Well done once again Jim. congrats
Do you have a Monday bet or are you staying away from this game. [You might not want to risk your perfect week ;)] Also when do they usually come out with the bowl lines?
Thanks for the congrats. This was a good week I went perfect in college too and also happened to be $23 to win $1000 on Pittsburgh over WVU which is something I would normally never do but kept thinking of all the #2 teams losing this season.
Sorry for the brag but its very exciting to bounce back so strong after the first poor week in a long time and I can’t help myself.
Last year sites were very slow posting bowl lines with the year before being brutal for the books, but this year Bookmaker.com already has lines up for the BCS games - I don’t have much thoughts on those just yet.
Tomorrow I don’t like much right now but I might take a look closer to game time tomorrow and see if anything looks interesting with alt lines or perhaps props. If I come up with anything I’ll be sure to post it.
nothing for me on tonights game. I did grab a middle early this morning on the first half of this game.
Pats -12.5 +100 Pinnacle
Ravens +13 -105
risking 0.125 units to win 5.125 units
I don’t really like anything as far as spreads and totals are concerned.
Can you explain exactly how a middle works?
Is it just when you bet a game and then bet the other way when the line changes hoping the score falls in the middle, so you just risk the juice to win both bets?
Exactly.
This was a good one despite it not having been close.
An example at $100 base so its easy to understand:
Bet $105 to win $100 on Ravens +$13 @ Legendz
Bet $102.50 to win $102.50 on Pats -12.5 @ Pinnacle.
If Pats win by 13 I win $102.50 at one site and push at the other.
If they don’t win by 13 i have it set up in a way I lose $2.50.
So I’m risking $2.50 to win $102.50
Risk 1 to get 41x more
that pats win by a TD and 2 FGs in the 1st half.
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