Comments on: NFL Week 12 Picks http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/ sportsbook and gambling related news Wed, 07 Jan 2009 14:24:38 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Jay http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-114 Jay Sun, 25 Nov 2007 07:41:25 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-114 Jim, thanks for the greenbay and detroit anaylis, Really apperiate it thanx... :) Jim, thanks for the greenbay and detroit anaylis, Really apperiate it thanx… :)

]]> By: hichcoc http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-112 hichcoc Sat, 24 Nov 2007 07:46:31 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-112 Thanks once again Jim...once again the dept of the info noted will be once again useful. Thanks once again Jim…once again the dept of the info noted will be once again useful.

]]> By: Jim http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-111 Jim Fri, 23 Nov 2007 23:08:35 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-111 Aidan I got mixed feeling on that. I'll talk to you about them later after I think about it some more. If we do add one you or Jax or someone else would need to manage it because I know that I don't want that job right now ;) Aidan I got mixed feeling on that. I’ll talk to you about them later after I think about it some more.
If we do add one you or Jax or someone else would need to manage it because I know that I don’t want that job right now ;)

]]> By: Jim http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-110 Jim Fri, 23 Nov 2007 22:58:59 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-110 Hichroc, I lean the Bears in this game from a betting stand point – as a fan I hope the Broncos win because that division is so pathetic right now. The reason I lean Bears is because I think we have an overvalued team on the road in a close spread over an overvalued team. Both teams have been plagued with injuries which took them from being decent teams (not great but not bad) to being mediocre teams at best so far this season. The Broncos are coming off 2 wins in a row though but once was against the Chiefs and the other was against a young Titans teams who is struggling with emotional effects of adversity (key injuries, key losses, qb’s sophomore slump with injuries etc etc) for the first time this season and for many of these players the first time in their pro careers. I don’t believe the Bears are any worst of a team or Broncos is any better of a team because of recent performances and I don’t see there being a lack of determination or motivation on either side so really I think the Bears should be at least -3 in this game. These two teams are so unpredictable though and each has the ability to highly exploit each others weaknesses that even at what should be a large edge I can see where this game might also be considered a coin flip as well. I’ve been really busy with Thanksgiving yesterday, shopping then time with my daughter today that I have not get a chance to look really deep to see if there might be something I am missing. I’ll be giving this game a detailed look certainly on Saturday night or Sunday morning decide if it might be worth making a bet on. Right now my thinking is that I’ll probably pass on this game but if I was betting it I would go with the Bears (but with that said I am open to changing my mind and betting the Broncos too if I could find solid reason to show it has value). I realize that’s not much but that’s my initial take anyways. Hichroc, I lean the Bears in this game from a betting stand point – as a fan I hope the Broncos win because that division is so pathetic right now.
The reason I lean Bears is because I think we have an overvalued team on the road in a close spread over an overvalued team.
Both teams have been plagued with injuries which took them from being decent teams (not great but not bad) to being mediocre teams at best so far this season. The Broncos are coming off 2 wins in a row though but once was against the Chiefs and the other was against a young Titans teams who is struggling with emotional effects of adversity (key injuries, key losses, qb’s sophomore slump with injuries etc etc) for the first time this season and for many of these players the first time in their pro careers.
I don’t believe the Bears are any worst of a team or Broncos is any better of a team because of recent performances and I don’t see there being a lack of determination or motivation on either side so really I think the Bears should be at least -3 in this game.
These two teams are so unpredictable though and each has the ability to highly exploit each others weaknesses that even at what should be a large edge I can see where this game might also be considered a coin flip as well.
I’ve been really busy with Thanksgiving yesterday, shopping then time with my daughter today that I have not get a chance to look really deep to see if there might be something I am missing. I’ll be giving this game a detailed look certainly on Saturday night or Sunday morning decide if it might be worth making a bet on. Right now my thinking is that I’ll probably pass on this game but if I was betting it I would go with the Bears (but with that said I am open to changing my mind and betting the Broncos too if I could find solid reason to show it has value).
I realize that’s not much but that’s my initial take anyways.

]]> By: Aidan http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-109 Aidan Fri, 23 Nov 2007 06:14:42 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-109 Hey Jim and other posters, What would you think of we got a forum set up? Hey Jim and other posters,

What would you think of we got a forum set up?

]]> By: Hichcoc http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-108 Hichcoc Fri, 23 Nov 2007 03:02:33 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-108 Hey Jim, What is your initial take on the Chicogo/Denver matchup? Hey Jim,

What is your initial take on the Chicogo/Denver matchup?

]]> By: Jim http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-107 Jim Thu, 22 Nov 2007 13:25:49 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-107 TheHotTuna, first time posts take longer to show up to everyone else because someone on our staff needs to approve them first. Regarding the UFC picks those are posted here by another capper we work with Jax Jackson, he is awesome at UFC, I'll admit I don't know much about the sport from a gambling perspective. I don’t see really any +EV teasers using the two later games today. If I was looking to do a teaser for the purpose of action on Thanksgiving I guess I would go with. 10 point 3 team teaser Jets +24.5 Colts -2.5 Bengals +11 This would be –EV but it would give good action. I like the Titans in the Sunday game but don’t see them winning by double digits very often there. For non teasers (wish I would prefer over the teasers) - I would lean just taking the Jets +14.5 then taking the Under in the Colts/Falcons game. I suppose Jets +21.5 and Colts under 48 in a tease might not be so bad either if its available at -120 @ 5dimes. I won’t be making any of those bets but if I was looking for Thursday night action just for the sake of action those would be the options I consider. Re: Browns -2.5 -125 – Yeah, I like it – I would pay -125 for that bet but it’s the absolute most chalk I would pay for it. Re: fantasy parlays – I know all the books I use don’t allow this (Pinnacle, Greek, 5Dimes, Bet Jamaica, Bodog etc) and I doubt there are any who do or would do for long. VIP.com last I used them did allow a lot of correlated game prop bets with spreads at one time – I don’t know now if they offer fantasy match ups or not but if I had to guess one place to check it would be them, but I would be very surprised if they do allow it. TheHotTuna, first time posts take longer to show up to everyone else because someone on our staff needs to approve them first. Regarding the UFC picks those are posted here by another capper we work with Jax Jackson, he is awesome at UFC, I’ll admit I don’t know much about the sport from a gambling perspective.

I don’t see really any +EV teasers using the two later games today. If I was looking to do a teaser for the purpose of action on Thanksgiving I guess I would go with.
10 point 3 team teaser
Jets +24.5
Colts -2.5
Bengals +11
This would be –EV but it would give good action. I like the Titans in the Sunday game but don’t see them winning by double digits very often there.

For non teasers (wish I would prefer over the teasers) - I would lean just taking the Jets +14.5 then taking the Under in the Colts/Falcons game. I suppose Jets +21.5 and Colts under 48 in a tease might not be so bad either if its available at -120 @ 5dimes.

I won’t be making any of those bets but if I was looking for Thursday night action just for the sake of action those would be the options I consider.

Re: Browns -2.5 -125 – Yeah, I like it – I would pay -125 for that bet but it’s the absolute most chalk I would pay for it.

Re: fantasy parlays – I know all the books I use don’t allow this (Pinnacle, Greek, 5Dimes, Bet Jamaica, Bodog etc) and I doubt there are any who do or would do for long. VIP.com last I used them did allow a lot of correlated game prop bets with spreads at one time – I don’t know now if they offer fantasy match ups or not but if I had to guess one place to check it would be them, but I would be very surprised if they do allow it.

]]> By: TheHotTuna http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-105 TheHotTuna Thu, 22 Nov 2007 05:32:28 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-105 One more comment I was betting on DSI sportsbook a couple weeks ago and they were allowing parlays between fantasy H2H bets and team wagers E.G. I took dallas to win over philly -110 Over -110 Romo -110 Owens -110 And played it as a parlay The next week they eliminated the ability to parlay Fantasy with teams. I think they might have determined that this was a correlated bet but im not 100% sure if that is the reason. Do you know anything about this or if their are any other sites that allow these types of parlays? One more comment
I was betting on DSI sportsbook a couple weeks ago and they were allowing parlays between fantasy H2H bets and team wagers
E.G. I took dallas to win over philly -110
Over -110
Romo -110
Owens -110

And played it as a parlay

The next week they eliminated the ability to parlay Fantasy with teams.
I think they might have determined that this was a correlated bet but im not 100% sure if that is the reason. Do you know anything about this or if their are any other sites that allow these types of parlays?

]]> By: TheHotTuna http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-104 TheHotTuna Thu, 22 Nov 2007 05:16:57 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-104 What happened to my post? What happened to my post?

]]> By: TheHotTuna http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-103 TheHotTuna Thu, 22 Nov 2007 03:38:35 +0000 http://sportsbookprop.com/2007/11/nfl-week12-predictions/#comment-103 Hey Jim, I have been following your picks since early in the year and I have to say they have been quite impressive. I started betting with you a couple months ago and have been quite successful. I havent had a chance to write anything till now. I like the Giants pick. As long as Manning isnt up against a solid team he can usually manage to keep his nerves level. Plus when Minnesota goes up against a team that has a solid enough run defense to stop Peterson from doing too much damage, they usually fall apart. Anyways thanks for your picks. Also i just noticed you posted picks for UFC. I also had fisher in the fight. It was the only one i liked, based on the last stout fight, i thought he would take it. I also figured he would control the scrapping contest. Shitty. P.S. What do you think of Cleveland at -2.5, -125. And Do you have any picks for Tursday, I cant see anything i really like all that much and Thanksgiving isnt the same without some football action to go with it. What do you think of a two game teaser Dallas -6.5 Indi -5.5 -130 Hey Jim,

I have been following your picks since early in the year and I have to say they have been quite impressive. I started betting with you a couple months ago and have been quite successful. I havent had a chance to write anything till now. I like the Giants pick. As long as Manning isnt up against a solid team he can usually manage to keep his nerves level. Plus when Minnesota goes up against a team that has a solid enough run defense to stop Peterson from doing too much damage, they usually fall apart.
Anyways thanks for your picks.
Also i just noticed you posted picks for UFC.
I also had fisher in the fight. It was the only one i liked, based on the last stout fight, i thought he would take it. I also figured he would control the scrapping contest. Shitty.
P.S. What do you think of Cleveland at -2.5, -125.
And
Do you have any picks for Tursday, I cant see anything i really like all that much and Thanksgiving isnt the same without some football action to go with it.
What do you think of a two game teaser
Dallas -6.5
Indi -5.5
-130

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