Last week was a rare losing week where I went 2-2 on posted free picks. Despite this loss we’re still having an outstanding season. Heading into week 12 our record on 2007 NFL posted free picks is 33-17 for +15.37 units of profit.

I looked hard at the Thanksgiving games for value this week and I’m having trouble finding it, so lets start the 2007 Week 12 NFL predictions with the games I like the most this week.

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants
The Vikings are no doubt a great team at both running the ball and stopping the run. I’ll make no excuses in that regard and be the first to give them credit for what they’ve accomplished in those areas. The problem for the Vikings is that their one dimensional offense and defense is on the road against a Giants team who is fairly well balanced in most aspects. If the Giants were healthier on offense then I’d expect the Giants would be favored by 11 points or so in this one. I think there playing well enough defensively and Coughlin is doing a good job making adjustments that the Giants will still show up and cover here.

The Giants have a strong run game and an average pass game, but when they go up against the Vikings defense their pass game should produce better than average results, which hopefully allow their strong rushing attack to produce.

All the Vikings wins this season have come against below average to poor run defenses. When they’ve faced strong run defenses (Packers, Dallas, Eagles etc) they’ve struggled. The Giants are balanced defensively, but their strength is stopping the run. I don’t think the Vikings have the talent to come from behind in this game. If they can run the ball and manage the clock they might have a chance but I consider this to be unlikely.

My math model has the Giants favored by 7.73 points in this game after adjustments and I’ve seen predictors show them as high as 9.5. It’s interesting that last week the Vegas Hilton opened this line at 10 a week in advanced.

I felt this play had good value @ 7, but with Bet Jamaica having the -7 @ -105 and the fact they offer ½ points at 10 cents, I consider this a very strong play at -6.5 -115.

Prediction: Giants 24 Vikings 16
My Pick: Giants -6.5 -115 (Bet Jamaica with ½ point buy) 1.73 to win 1.5 units

Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals
This one seems to easy to me. I think this line has a lot to do with the fact that the Titans have struggled the past couple weeks and have some injury concerns. With the Titans having lost last week I think it’s likely they see what Haynesworth has left in the tank this week and he’ll play – this is not GTD but it’s a strong suspicion. This should be the true bounce back week for the Titans.

The Bengals defense is horrible and I think this should be a good opportunity for Young to build off his best passing game of his career. His two interceptions at the end of the game last week I’ll write off, because he’s still a young QB. Young was in a situation late in the game where he had to make something happen being down 14 and having the clock against them. Those passes seemed well worth the risk to me and Denver’s defense made a good enough read to pick each one off.
My math model has the Titans favored by 3 and predicts they’ll win straight up 59.1% of the time in this match up. Based on this stat I should be betting the Titans for multiple units but still having some valid concerns over Titans turnover problems. Not to mention their careless penalties lately and there past two weeks defensive performance. I feel that there is also enough chance that the math might be lying this week, so I’ll stick to just 1 unit where I feel very comfortable.

My Prediction: Titans 24 – Bengals 20
My Pick: Titans -1 -110 (Legendz) 1.1u to win 1u

2 Team 6.5 point teaser -120 @ Legendz
Leg #1 Packers teased to +3.5
Leg #2 Jaguars teased to -1

Teasing the Jaguars down to -1 has a ton of value – I’ll be honest though in saying that I might not have made this teaser if it was not for the need to find the best option to paid the Jags teaser with and liking the idea that that same best option gives me the only NFL Thanksgiving Day action I’ll probably have this Thursday. The Packers teased to +3.5 is only slight +EV @ -120 - despite the fact that their is plenty of historical evidence to show that teasing through the 3 two times @ -130 or better is about Neutral and with the Packers being listed at -3.5 -105 many places this is just like crossing the 3 two times. This teaser is only available right now at Legendz because they are one of the few sites to base the Packers/Lions line off the 3, currently Packers -3 -120.

I’m scaling this play down a little bit.
My play: 2 team 6.5 point teaser Packers +3.5, Jags -1 @ -120 odds | 0.90 u to win 0.75 u

I might have some other plays later in the week but for right now this is all that stood out as far as the early lines are concerned. As always check back in the week for potential add on plays.

***Please Leave Comments**** Last week 5,162 people read my NFL week picks and we had some great comments, but I suspect many others who did not post probably had something to add but didn’t for whatever reason (btw thx to those who did) I realize on most sites comment boxes simply get ignored, that’s not the case here. Feel free to start game discussion, ask questions, disagree with a pick or just say hello in the comments box.

*** Updates*** 11:15AM on Sunday Game Day

I found an interesting bet today at WSEX, 2 team pleaser (opposite of teaser, selling 6 points on each side). Texans pleased from +3.5 to -2.5 with Redskins teased for +3.5 to -2.5. This pleaser pays 6 to 1. I’ve done math on these type of wagers many times and found them to be -EV. This is a rare case where we have an edge with the true odds being about 5.45 to 1 and were being paid 6 to 1. I think this is certaily worth putting a small bet on. Note: I won’t count this in year to date records because small plays at +600 odds would make the ytd records become misleading because to this season so far its been done as straight win/loss and units +/- and has not been tracked with a weight system on the win/loss side.

Denver Broncos +100 @ Chicago Bears -110
I gave a little bit of the reasons behind this pick earlier in the week in my comments thread. These are two teams that should of been decent teams this year but had injuries that they’ve become mediocre teams at best. I see this is a classic case where we have an undervalued home team facing off against and overvalued road team. In such cases I’ll obviously put my money down on the home team.

Prediction: Broncos 16 Bears 20
My pick: Bears Moneyline -110 (Pinnacle) 1.1u to win 1u