Week 10 of the NFL has lots of great match ups on the schedule. There are four games that the lines are not out for yet: Broncos/Chiefs, Browns/Steelers, Jags/Titans and Ravens/Bengals. I’m looking forward to seeing what these lines will be and certainly will add on to this post if I make some picks on those games.

Let’s get right into the NFL Week 10 Predictions, Analysis and Free Picks.

The game I see by far the most value in this week is:
Indianapolis Colts -4 @ San Diego Chargers +4
One of the more common mistakes sports bettors make is they judge teams to often based on last weeks performance. Bookies knowing this have a tendency to shade the line when they expect majority of recreational bettors will take a certain side. Last week in a fluke performance by both teams. The Chargers where embarrassed on the road in Minnesota, where they were defeated 35-17. This was a rather strange game where the Chargers were extremely out of sink. Rivers, right in-between committing delay of game penalties, was dropping snaps left and right. To say they were a complete mess would be an understatement. To make things worst the play clock broke in the stadium, this did not help the already struggling Chargers any. The Bolts defense found themselves back on the field quite often this game and had it not been for so many Vikings big plays the time of possession probably would have been even more lopsided here then it was. Last week’s game is one we need to look past and focus on the actually match up at hand.

I read a report on a betting site this week that suggested the Chargers should be favored in this game. To me that seems like a bit of a stretch. One bad performance should not move the line 4-5 points. Capping this game with last weeks performance aside the Colts -3 +105 / Chargers +3 -115 is approximate to being the correct line. With the move from 3 to 4 being one of the more important single point line moves in pro football, I’ll take the Chargers at +4.

A ton of places have this line listed as Chargers +3.5 +100 right now, I don’t care to take the +100 as I’d much rather the equivalent line of Chargers +4 -110, so I purchased the half point to get there.

My pick
Chargers +4 -110 (Pinnacle) 1.1u to win 1u

The next game I like follows along with the same theme as the last pick:
Minnesota Vikings +6 at Green Bay Packers -6
If you’ve scrolled down to this pick be sure to scroll up and read the write up on my last pick. This line is again the result of over reaction to the Vikings performance last week. To suggest the Packers are only a 3 point favorite on a Neutral field just does not compute. The Packers are a team who can’t run the ball well and the Vikings are great at stopping the run. This is no problem, as the Packers are also a team that would just as well prefer to pass the ball 90% of the time anyways and because Minny struggles so much stopping the pass, we’ll probably see them do just that. The Vikings/Chargers match up looks nothing like the Packers/Vikings match up and the Vikings are on the road here in a division game. This match up is very favorable to Green Bay and I expect them to get the W here by at least a TD. I’ll predict the Packers win this one by 8-14 points with 10 being the most likely.

Update: Packers -5.5 is now available at several sportsbooks. To keep things honest I’ll track my record based on the pick I already posted below but be sure to try and get on this at -5.5 now.
My pick:
Packers -6 -102 (Pinnacle) 1.02 to win 1.00u

I’m still researching a lot of games and will be adding more picks to this page soon. Be sure to check back as the week develops.

****Please Leave Comments**** Last week 5,147 people read my NFL week 9 picks and not one of you said a word. I realize on most sites comment boxes simply get ignored, that’s not the case here. Feel free to start game discussion, ask questions, disagree with a pick or just say hello in the comments box.

Once again don’t forget to return to this page for more picks coming soon.

Update Wednesday November 7 at 3:55 AM:
I’m waiting for the Jags/Titans and Broncos/Chiefs lines to come out before adding some more picks. I have a teaser play in mind but I want to see these lines first before finalizing this play I have in mind.

Update Friday November 9th 4:30 AM.

5 Dimes offers some great teaser odds however they often shade the lines to prevent people from getting the best value on teasers. Here is a case where the 5 Dimes shade worked out well.

2 team 7.5 point teaser at 5 Dimes 1.35u to win 1u

Teaser Leg #1 Dallas Cowboys +7.5
I’ve read on various forums posters cry trap in this game, using the thinking that the Cowboys -1.5 line looking to good to be true. I am not sure how that is really the case though. I figure the Cowboys are about 7 point better of a team on a neutral field. The fact the Giants have had an extra week to prepare against the cowboys who are coming off a Sunday night game on the road is worth at least 2 points here. The Giants home field advantage in an important divisional game is worth 3.5 point.The line of Dallas -1.5 to me seems about right. The fact though that I would need to do a 10 point 3 team teaser just about everywhere else to get the same line I am here on Dallas on a 2 team 7.5 pointer, thanks to the 5 Dimes shade makes this play highly profitable. This should be a fun game to watch and this was the best bet I could find available.

Teaser Leg #2 Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5
The Browns are one of the many feel good stories of the NFL this year, and I surely would not attempt to take anything away from their performance, however - The Steelers have been lights out at home this season as well as overall. The Steelers are first in the league at stopping the pass (this is the Browns offensive strength) and are 1st in the league in points allowed. This is a mathematically profitable teaser as it is based on two different historical performance subsets and with the Browns being a bit overrated (don’t get me wrong, they are good - but overrated) this IMO is an ideal teaser.

My pick:
2 team 7.5 point teaser at 5Dimes -135 | Cowboys +7.5 , Steelers -2.5 1.35u to win 1u