Your source for Sports Betting News, Bookmaker Reviews and Sportsbook Bonuses
I felt it was very important this week to get my week 11 picks out early this week because this is a rare week where I am taking a bunch of small favorites (This is entirely coincidental because usually I find myself the dogs when the spreads are low). Just a quick update before I get into Week 11 predictions: last week we went 3-0 for +3 units which brings our 2007 NFL season record (on posted free picks) to 31-15 for +16.85.
Keep in mind the Week 11 early lines might change. It’s Sunday Night and the Colts/Chargers game is still being played as I am working on this write up. Should the lines change I’ll come back and make updated comments regarding what my play would be had I been forced to bet after the line had moved.
Early Edition – 3 Bets made Sunday Night November 11, 2007 for Week 11 games which take place next weekend:
Cleveland Browns -2.5 @ Baltimore Ravens
This is really interesting games where one of the leagues top offense (Browns) face one of the leagues top defenses (Ravens) then on the other side of the ball we got a horrible defense (Browns) against a horrible offense (Ravens). These two teams met up in week 4 and the Ravens got the 27-13 victory.
When I first glanced at this pick it seemed right away like the Browns were the automatic play so I started to dig looking for reasons to bet the Ravens. I came up with the fact the Ravens have been historically a terrible road team and now they’re a road favorite, and I also thought about the fact the browns are coming off an emotional loss; but, I can easily counter those arguments by saying when the Browns came off an emotional loss earlier in the season (2 point loss @ Oakland) they came back strong the following week to spank the Ravens 27-13. Also the Browns preformed quite well this season on the road, even during a 17 point loss to the Patriots they were within 10 with the ball before a last minute turnover that the Pats returned for a TD and they gave Steelers one heck of a fight last week as well.
Having not found a reason outside of the match ups to avoid the Browns this week I looked a bit closer at the match up, and I really still feel the Browns -2.5 are the correct play based on how poor the ravens offense has been. In their last 6 games the Ravens have averaged just 12 points per game. This is a span where they faced only one top rated defense, only one above average ones and a 4 that rated amongst the worst in the NFL. Here is the current point allowed defensive rankings for their past 6 opponents:
#30, #24, #28, #12, #1, #31
To say the Ravens offense is horrible and just keeps getting worst doesn’t even explain how horrific it actually is. They might have one of the best defenses in the league but I don’t see any reason we should expect different results this game then the last time these two teams matched up. Just look at the Ravens offensive performance against the Bengals last week (one week handicapping is dangerous, but this has become weekly occurrence we’re talking about here). The Browns offense is much more balanced than the Bengals and should be able to at least punch in a TD or 2 with a bunch of FGs mixed between.
My prediction: Browns 24 Ravens 19
My Pick: Browns -2.5 -110 (TheGreek) 1.1u to win 1u
Update 12:05 PM Saturday November 17: I won’t change it as far as my record tracking is concerned but I am not downgrading my recommendation on the Cleavland Browns -2.5 pick to a 0.55 to win 0.5 unit pick. I apologize to those who already bet it at 1 unit following my advice. If +3 -110 becomes available near game time, I personally will be hedging back a 1/2 unit with a chance at still winning the full unit with a push on the 3. Again to keep things honest I will track this bet on my record as it was originally posted.
Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos -2.5
I would often favor the Titans in this match up but the way their team has been performed this season it’s hard to justify taking them on the road. Stats show they should have an easy time rushing against the Broncos but so far this season the Titans have really struggled to cover against poor run defenses (ex: Raiders, Falcons – they won these 2 straight up but did not cover the spread and both games were in Tennessee, this week they’ll be on the road).
Denver is a tough place for any team to play at especially a young team who has been struggling lately. The Titans have been basically squeaking out wins against week NFC opponent. This season they are only 3-2 against AFC opponents and the first win was week 1 and the others were a 2 point win over the Texans and a 4 point win at home over the Raiders (not exactly the elite teams of the AFC).
The Broncos have not been healthy but they had several player’s rest this past weekend after having been listed as probable and questionable, it’s likely they’ll be healthier this coming week.
My argument for taking the Broncos is not very strong nearly as strong as my argument for this being the correct time to fade the Titans. With the Titans struggling I have to go with the AFC home team with a strong home field advantage who is favored by less than a FG.
My Prediction: Broncos 19 – Titans 13
My Pick: Broncos -2.5 -110 (TheGreek) 1.1u to win 1u
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions +3 -119
As far as the match ups go in this game, after making adjustments based on the type of opponents each of these teams has played on the season, I have the Giants as a 3 point favorite on a neutral field so the spread is about fair as a pick. Even with that said I would be willing to lay up to a point or a point in a half with Detroit in this game based on several factors. The Giants have a history under Coughlin of performing very poor the second half of the season, particularly on the road after a loss. With many of the Giants key players and coaches having been on those previous teams I see no reason to discredit this trend at this point. Yes, it is possible that it could be variance – but its more probable at this point that this is the result of morale issues, poor preparation or lack of confidence (hindering the ability to rebound). On the other side we have just a small sample size to go on, but so far this season the Lions have shown they’re capable of bouncing back strong after a road loss. I’ll take the Lions here because of these factors though the true match up appears to have this game as a coin flip.
This line has moved to Lions +3 -119. I really like this bet a lot.
My prediction: Lions 27 Giants 21
My Pick: Lions +3 -119 (Pinnacle) 2.38u to win 2u
I’ll certainly have a few more week 11 picks coming so check this blog soon. At the time of the post so far lines on these 4 games have yet to be released:
Rams @ 49ers
Bears @ Seahawks
Chiefs @ Colts
Chargers @ Jags
Update: Week 11 Game Day Add on Pick 10:20 AM EST Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccs @Atlanta Falcons +3.5
This pick I’m taking strictly for its BSP value and the fact that the Falcons have been solid $ as a home underdog. I had pretty much planned on doing so all week but wanted to wait for the line I needed to pop up.
This line is currently available at +3.5 -110 @ 5 Dimes and at +3.5 -112 at Pinnacle using the drop down menu. Its also available at -115 @ Bet Jamaica using a ½ point purchase.
Prediction: Buccs 19 Falcons 16
My Pick: Falcons +3.5 -110 (5Dimes) 1.1u to win 1u
***Please Leave Comments**** Last week 4,272 people read my NFL week picks and only a few left comments (btw thx to those who did) I realize on most sites comment boxes simply get ignored, that’s not the case here. Feel free to start game discussion, ask questions, disagree with a pick or just say hello in the comments box.
28 users commented in " NFL Week 11 Picks "
Follow-up comment rss or Leave a TrackbackI like your read of the Brows v Ravens game– I think you’re dead on.
The Broncos pick I don’t get– The Titans are #8 in the power rankings, they got their passing game back together last week and while the Broncos secondary is doing a bit better, you’ve got to like LenDale White coming back (probably) into the mix to befuddle the Bronco’s D. BTW– the Broncos are #18 in the power ratings… I think the Titans regain their edge this week. (check out my full analysis at ( http://www.picksvspoints.com/Weekly_Picks/Entries/2007/11/11_NFL_Picks_Week_11.html )
I also split with you on the Giants– but like you said, it’s almost a coin flip… except that the Lions have zero running game this week. On paper, I get it; following last week’s performance, no way.
Loving the analysis though– you’ve working some interesting angles and considering my performance last week, I just have to say– keep ‘em coming!
You know I may have to agree with you about the Giants. It seems to me that they have leadership issues and it starts with Eli. After the disappointing 2nd half performance vs. the Cowboys I am reluctant to have any faith that giants can be that team to bounce back. How about the Jags -3 against the San Diego Chargers? I really like the way the Jags are playing with Quinn Gray in the driver seat.
Who do you believe has the upper hand in the cleveland vs. n.o. game? In addition I agree with all of the slated picks.
oops! here’s a link that won’t require a login… Sorry about that–
http://www.picksvspoints.com/PvP_Forum.html
I could write a much more impressive write up about how the Titans are the best pick this week, than I could on why Denver is a great pick. Even the line makes sense to with the Titans having lost value last week and the Broncos gaining it. I don’t blame anyone for taking the Titans in fact I think it’s a solid pick in many regards. Here is what I do:
I usually watch the 1PM NFL games and then come 4PM I start doing capping on next weeks match ups. I’ll chose 8 games where I think the most value might be and break them down completely, I end up with pages of notes and #’s that are entirely disorganized. I’ll usually take a break to watch some 4th quarter games but once those are done its crunch time. I firm up what I expect the lines to open at and what I am looking to bet. I then sit and refresh the odds at bookmaker.com literally every 3 minutes waiting for them to come out and I make my bets.
My odds had Titans favored by 2 points. I’ve seen a few predictors show the Titans @ +3 but I don’t think those accounted enough for a significant home field advantage.
Some things not really accounted for was how poor the Titans offense has actually been in converting yards to point, and the big one is all the Titans injuries. There strength is in the run game. But with White having a Toe injury and now a knee injury if he plays he is likely not playing at full health and the same with Brown’s Ankle. With the Titans running game in question they might find themselves in big trouble if this season Vince Young has to pass. The Titans fall behind in this game and I don’t see how they can pull out of it.
Denver is a mediocre team who has been plagued with injuries. With quite a few questionable players resting last week and this game not being until Monday night there is a chance at least a few might return. I guess we’ll know a little more on that tonight after the teams practice.
This game should be close. I would not lay money on a banged up Titans team under any circumstances right now, but Denver at home banged up or not = I’ll take them here.
hichcoc,
Cleavland does not play N.O so I’m guessing you mean the Texans/Saints game?
If the Texans were not coming off a bye week and getting Andre Davis back this week I would be all over the Saints in this game. I still lean Saints but not enough for me to bet them at this point. I am still considering this game a little but probably won’t bet it. If someone held a gun to my head and said pick the game correct and if your right I’ll let you live.. well in that spot forced to make a pick I’ll take the Saints up to -2.5 and Texans at +3 or better.
emann06,
I disagree here. Gray did a good job managing the game last week where he completed 13 of 24 with 101 yards, a TD and no interceptions.
There is nothing overly impressive about those stats and when you consider that is the best game of his NFL career it not to promising for Jags backers.
I would love getting the Chargers +3 if Gray was the QB here, but Its very likely Garrard is back this week. He was having a good season before getting injured.
My initial thought on this game was to wait till later in the week and see who practices when. With the Jags getting healthy again I lay off this game.
At +3 I lean Chargers still. I would start to lean Jags at -2.5 -105 or better but again this is a situation where I probably would not bet unless I forced to.
Sorry Jim,
You are right I meant Saints vs. Houston,
and thanks for your post and personal take on this game.
If you ask me about the Chargers vs Jags game, I would say go with the Chargers on nothing more than just a mere hunch and the line seemingly residing at +3.
Jim, you’re making me rethink my Titans pick… Particularly per White’s toe injury, that’s the kind of injury that, small though it may be, can turn even a proven feature back into a predictable little kitten… Pair that with his physical shape (round)– if that’s an indicator of who LenDale really is– I don’t think that he’s the kind of guy who will really play through pain (ironic how he plays to contact unlike R Bush though).
I don’t know, I’m still favoring the Titans, but you’ve got me re-crunching the numbers on this one. Tennessee by all marks really is a superior team, but they’re doing terribly when it comes to offensive production. This game may well end up being a coaching battle– then I end up favoring… Flaky Jeff Fisher or Lucifer Shanahan? I’m back to Titans…
I was looking around on the internet, for a couple of days now and i went to a lot of website and did my research, even on you, your picks are great, your always on, or just a little bit off, like last weeks San vs Indina. game….
Thanks, if you’re referring to me, I respect your picks a great deal too… now if only I could get a certain online sportsbook to pay me not to play, then I’b be in business… You’re right though, that San Diego v Indy thing killed me last week. I’m sure I wasn’t alone though.
Seriously though, I think your site is fantastic and that’s why I keep coming back here. Keep up the good, no, great work!
The last post was from Jay, first time poster here I think, but I totally appreciate your comments and insights just the same.
) say to me thought break on chargers game in last weeks post, then on another forum someone said same to me, now this is 3rd time – not sure if that was to me or you? mention it as well. I’m not really sure why but I think some people are thinking I lost that bet.
I think quite a few people think I lost last week on the Chargers. I noticed Aidan (Works here but is not a US sports or football bettor – hockey is his game
Anyways guys. I have a few more bets I am still looking at. It likely I add a play or two here but it might not come till Saturday or even might not come till just before game time. If I do then as soon as my bets are entered I’ll certainly post.
Jim,
Sorry for the confusion. Here I was getting a big head about things– you deserve the kudos though, yours are some of the best, most insightful picks I’ve read. Good luck this week– with all these close matchups, its going to be an interesting one!
BTW– Just noticed that Javon Walker is officially ruled out for this week and apparently Travis Henry’s injury was revealed as a partially torn patella collateral ligament (not that anybody figured him a lock for Monday night)… I think it’s going to be Shanahan’s defensive shenanigans vs the Titans turf toes that are going to determine the outcome of this one… we’ll see! (I’m still leaning Titans but I’m not placing any “green faith” on that until Sunday night.)
When Jim bets against his favorite team I listen. Go Broncos!
Guys,
What is your opinion on the Oakland game? Does anyone have a bead on it to feel secure in leaning towards them Sunday?
Hichcoc, I don’t like the Raiders but I don’t really like the Vikings all that much either. Here is my brief take on that game.
The Raiders at Vikings line seems about right to me. Anywhere between 4.5 and 5.5 I would lay off. I would go with Vikings for sure at -4 or better and would probably need +6.5 to go with the Raiders but I would strongly consider them at +6.
The match up is close.
When the Raiders have the ball their horrible pass offense goes against the Vikings horrible pass defense and their good run game goes against the Vikings solid run defense.
The Raiders defense has been good at stopping the pass and Tarvaris Jackson is not starting caliber QB but finds himself in the roll anyways.
Unless the game is decided by turnovers – it will most likely be decided by the match up of the Vikings run game versus the Raider’s run defense. Even with Taylor in over Peterson the Vikings run offense is much stronger the Raiders run defense.
I would flip a coin to decide if the line was 4.5 to 5.5 – I think the Vikings might have a slightly better chance of covering either of those spreads but I’m not fully confident of it and the edge is not enough to overcome the juice.
Brandon,
. If any of them make conference championship I probably won’t like them as much next season.
I pick a few long shots to be fans of each season. The Titans and Saints biased started to wear off after they each became decent teams. This year I’m all about the Packers, Lions and Browns
College football wise I am still a big Oregon fan and that loss sucked the other night. There goes my early season long shot on Dixon to win the Heisman *sheds tear*
The last pick is a real good one…real reall good one…
To0 bad i did not get a chance to post it here earlier. I think this week Road Teams +26.5 haa a lot of value. I grabbed this on TheGreek just before the games had started.
I also liked Imaginary match up at the Greek for the Cardials to score more points than the browns but if the Ravens keep handing the ball to the Browns on a short field I don’t stand much chance of winning that prop bet.
Next week I’ll take a look at these prop bets again and post under comments what I like. I’m not confident in them enough yet to make them picks from the site.
Anyways GL to everyone today.
Hey Jim,
Thanks as always..solid stuff and great analytical critique.
Looking forward to tonight’s matchup, I smell vindication! Er, maybe that’s dinner burning. I’ve got a whole lot of nothing riding on this one right now because I’m wondering if we’re going to hear the final word on Travis Henry before game-time. I’m convinced that the run game holds the key on this one.
Also, I’ve posted my early picks for week 12 if anybody is interested– http://www.picksvspoints.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=19
Obviously, it’s way too early to call any pick final, but with Thanksgiving throwing us a curveball, I thought I’d post so people could get a jump on discussion.
Jim,
I hope you have became a slight believer in the Jags after their performance on Sunday. I hit a 5 game parley of which the pay out was pretty nice. That parley definitely included the Jags to win the game. However, I was very disppointed in the WR group for INDY. Peyton sucked in fantasy this week.
Where should I lean if i had to on the Cin/Tenn game if it happens to be a pick em?
Jim thanks for the wonderful pick for denver….I was the only one out of 7 people to go for them but hey it paid off…..
Thanks everyone this week for the comments. I’m obviously a bit behind this week with no week 12 picks posted yet. I had a problem with the cable company and had no cable this weekend but got it fixed last night. I’ve been catching up on college action and am should have my college picks finished this afternoon. I will likely get my picks for NFL week 12 picks out tonight but it might end up having to wait till tomorrow.
emann06, yes I watched the game tape as i went to sleep last night – the Jags look very solid right now.
Jay, thanks. Obviously this week was a disappointment for me. My record on picks that are over 1 unit have been great historically but this week it did not work out with the Lions. I managed to go 2-2 on NFL picks, had I not hit that Monday night play though it would of been a terrible weekend. It ended up being a manageable loss on Sunday and its still a great season. I really hate losing though – it takes me a day or so to shake it off. I ended up not even capping hoops yesterday because I knew I needed to relax here a bit and just move forward.
Hichcoc, I have not looked at that game yet. I will respond in the next day or so inside the week 12 post after it opens. I’ll try to get to it tonight.
Thanks again everyone.
Did I say Titans? That was a typo, clearly I meant to say Broncos.
Tom…
I think you hit the nail on the head with this….
Leave A Reply