2007 NCAAF Week 14 Predictions and Free Picks – Championship Week

Central Michigan vs Miami Ohio – Played Saturday 11AM EST
This is an interesting line because I capped this game based on match ups, as CMU favored by 4.5. I then peaked at the Sagrin predictor and seen that they have CMU as a 2.5 point favorite on a Neutral field. With this practically being a home game for Central Michigan, I expect this to be worth at least 2 points if not more – making the fair line again about the 4.5 figure I had come up with.
There are a couple things to consider regarding the line.

The Chippewas have already squared away their bowl life and will most likely find themselves in Detroit on December 26 playing Michigan State in the Motor City Bowl.

Miami Ohio, on the other hand is predicted to play in the GMAC bowl, but will have to work out an issue with the league should they lose this game and Bowling Green does not receive a bowl bid. This gives an extra motivation factor to Miami which might account for why the line is a bit lower than I expected.

With Central Michigan perceived to be a better team then they actually are, I was expecting to find value fading them this week.  Although I’m now seeing the line is fair on one side of my projection and generous on the other side, I have no problem making a value bet play here on the Chippewas

Capping the MAC conference has been a strange beast to tackle this season, but here is a brief analysis:

We all know that CMU has major defensive struggles giving up 38 points per game on the season. (#229) However, they are going against a Redhawks offense that scores just 20 points per game (#206). I do think its fair to assume that the Redhawks will score closer to the points CMU allows on average, then the average # of points they score. This comes mostly from the Redhawks mediocre passing game against the Chipperwas horrible pass defense. My prediction here is the Redhwaks score 28 to 31 in this game.

When the Chipperwas have the ball I don’t see much reason that they won’t reach their season average in points scored per game 34 points, rather than scoring the 25 points per game the Miami Ohio allows on average.

My prediction is this will be a high scoring game with CMU winning by 3-6 points

I decided that with CMU having won a couple games recently by 3 points and my capping range being 2.5 to 4.5 and my prediction being 3-6 that is made sense to buy through the 3 here which can be done at TheGreek for just 10 cents per point.

My Pick: Central Michigan -2.5 -130 (TheGreek with 1 point buy) 1.3u to win 1 u

Tennessee +7.5 @ LSU -7.5
I’m going to go with Tennessee in this game and will save the capping analysis for some other time. Let me tell you my exact thought process here. LSU has struggled all season and pulled off some amazing wins. Its been one heck of a roller coaster ride this season and I feel that emotions might finally take their toll on this team. One week after losing the National Championship, I question how well LSU might practice the week leading in and how well they might perform in this game. With their coach being in the news the past couple weeks after the possibility leaving to go to Michigan. I think there are just to many factors here that might effect their focus and preparation. Also its worth noting that LSU has not beated winning record teams by 2 scores this season, they have been struggling and squeaking out wins versus this caliber of teams.
This pick uses intangible analysis so is scaled down a bit.

My Pick: Tennessee +7.5 (Bookmaker.com) 0.88u unit to win 0.88u

For right now that’s all for the week. I might add another pick or two later in the week but for right now this is the only value I find in the early lines.

YTD Record heading into college football week 14:
45-36 for +13.27 units of profit

Last week was one of the worst of my career which resulted in the overall season’s results going from excellent to just good. 2007 college football posted free picks have won at 55.56% rate now on a standard win loss ratio and 57.81% based on a weighed record.