We continued to roll in college football in week 10 where we went 5-2 on posted free picks which picked us up 2.35 units of profit. We are now 37-23 for +19.74 units of profit on the 2007 College Football Season, and are now geared up for another big Week 10.

Let’s get right into the NCAAF Week 11 Predictions and Picks:

Tuesday Night National Televised Game (7:30PM EST on ESPN2)
Central Michigan -3 @ Western Michigan +3
This is a big time rivalry game in the Mac conference. With the two schools being 2 hours apart and the rivalry being so strong it would make sense to assume home field advantage is not much of a factor is this game. If that was assumed though you might not dig up the stat that shows the home team is 15-2 in this annual match up since 1990. I honestly don’t see anything real strong to indicate that this won’t be the case again this year, but having the choice of +3 or +115 to +120, I’ll take the point no doubt about it.

A little about each team:

Central Michigan is currently 4-0 in conference play and has a 2 game lead in the Western Division thanks primarily to their offense. Both teams struggle defensively with the CM Chippewas giving up 38.3 points per game and the WM Broncos giving up 32.3 points per game

Central Michigan has a well balanced offense and is capable of moving the ball both through the air and via the run. They’ll be able to move the ball effectively with the rushing attack as Western Michigan has a horrible defense against the run but is about average against the pass.

Western Michigan is a less balanced offensively as their offensive strength is primarily through the passing game and they really struggle to move the ball with the rush. This good news for Western Michigan is that that Central Michigan has the worst defense in the MAC and his horrible at stopping the pass (not much better at stopping the run either).
This game is a lot closer than the records would indicate. I think the public bettors who bet based on pure records and basic stats will probably fall in love with the road favorite here. I think that gives us more of and edge here on the home dog as if the line is shaded it will be more favorable for Broncos bettors. With this game being on National TV for schools not used to media exposure, and all else considered I’ll side with the home dog here.

My Pick:
Western Michigan +3 -110 (TheGreek) 1.1u to win 1u.

Update: I see a lot have moved this line to +2.5 -105. Be sure to see if you book sells half points for 10 cents, if not find one who does and take this at +3 -115 if that the best line available when you’re betting.

Wednesday Night National Televised Game (7:30PM EST on ESPN2)
Ohio -2.5 @ Akron +2.5
How this game qualifies for Television exposure is beyond me. The only thing I can think of is that Ohio was predicted preseason to be a MAC contender this year and they were booked for a TV game many months in advanced. Other than both schools being in Ohio and in the same conference there is nothing really exciting about this game. The Schools are a long 3+ hours away from each other, these teams are not really true rivals and not a whole lot is online in this game for the Akron Zips.

Ohio is playing better football though as of late. They started the season 2-0 and then went on to drop 3 straight games but bounced back to win 3 of their past 4 with the only loss in that stretch being a 40-43 defeat on the road. Ohio is certainly starting to show signs they are capable of playing at the caliber they were predicted to play before the season had started. While a chance at the Mac title is highly improbable should they happen to win out their remaining 2 games they’ll be 7-5 on the season and that’s enough for them to find themselves in some sort of bowl game.

Meanwhile the Akron Zips were all but eliminated from any slim chance they had at making a bowl game this season when they fell on the road quite miserably 20-44 to the Falcons this past Saturday. Akron has really struggled offensively this season and is now the worst in their division in total offense.

When Akron is on offense they’ll likely struggle to move the ball (as they have all season so far). Their best chance will be to run the ball as that’s the weakness of Ohio, however the fact that Akron is one of the worst rush offenses in the country hinders their chances of exploiting their opponents weakness here. Ohio has them out matched in terms of pass defense however not by much. A good combo attack and Akron might be able to get some limited offensive successes here and there and they’ll need those successes plus a fair amount of luck to pull out the upset victory in this game.

Ohio has a balanced offense with the stronger side being their run game. Akron does not match up horribly defensively but they don’t exactly match up well either. Akron has shown some success defensively in limiting opponents pass production but with them being well out matched in stopping the run, the passing game should open up a bit more of Ohio in this one.
These two teams have 4 common opponents and not too much can be deciphered from that data.

-1. Akron played Kent State at home on September 22 and beat them 27-20. The following week Ohio went to Kent State and lost 25-33
-2. Akron went to Buffalo and lost 10-26 on October 27, 3 weeks earlier Ohio lost at Buffalo 10-31.
-3. Akron lost on October 13 to Temple 20-24, Ohio this past weekend beat Template 23-7.
-4. Akron lost to Bowling Green last week 20-44, the week before Ohio beat Bowling Green 38-27.
**Overall score of the comparison 2-2. This info alone does not tell us much.***

The one thing that stands out is these two teams have completely flip flopped. Akron has dropped 4 straight games while Ohio did the same earlier in the season but has since recovered by putting together solid performances 4 weeks in a row.

This late in the season I want my money on the team playing better ball right now and that has more on the line.

Both teams are playing here on short rest and in this situation it favors Ohio. The team who has things going right for them is more likely to get into gear and have a solid day or two of practice before playing on short rest. For Akron the season could not end soon enough. I said a couple years ago in a late season pick that the Zips were a team of character, well this season I am saying the opposite. Akron is a team who might come out with some life in this game, but the exhaustion and doubt will kick in should they face advertising deep into the game.

Personally I have to go with the road favorite here.

My pick
Ohio -2.5 -110 (Bookmaker.com) 1.1 u to win 1u.

Update: Once again I am playing on a line that is moving. You’ll need to shop around now to get this line. It’s still available right now at Bookmaker.com, last place I see it. If you need to lay -115 that’s fine. Its also okay to bet -3 up to -110 but be sure to shop around and avoid betting the -3 if there is an option for better available to you.

Thursday Night National Televised Game (7:30PM EST on ESPN)
Louisville +16.5 at West Virginia -16.5
Louisville sure turned out to be a bust this season, once though to be a potential National Championship contender they find themselves struggling to simply become bowl game eligible. Now 5-4 on the season (2-6 ATS) they head to West Virginia to take on the red hot Mountaineers who are coming off a lights out performance on the road where they absolutely stomped on Rutgers in a 31-3 victory. We have a classic match up here now of undervalued team +16.5 @ overvalued team -16.5. In this game I am going to take the undervalued, underachieving team for 1 unit and I’ll recommend this play so long as the line stays +15 or better. I chose to purchase a point in this game at Pinnacle getting this at +17.5 -120

My Pick:
Louisville +17.5 -120 (Pinnacle using drop down menu) 1.2u to win 1u

Friday Night National Televised Game (8:00PM EST on ESPN2)
Rutgers -19 at Army +19
We’re getting a chance this week to watch a lot of teams who have not lived up to their preseason potential. No one expected much out of Army though a lot did have them to be an improved team this season as they returned a ton of starters – now as the season is closing they find themselves 3-6 overall and 3-4-1 ATS. The team their hosting, Rutgers, is a massive disappointment after having started the season ranked #16 in the National polls and having reached as high as #10 early on. On their forth game of the season a loss at home to Maryland and since then have lost 3 additional games while picking up just 2 more wins. Rutgers is now left merely fighting for any sort of bowl life. With 3 games left they likely need to win 2 just to play in a bowl game. If they win just one there is a slim outside chance they get an invite but it’s unlikely. If they win 2 of 3 they’ll find themselves playing against a conference USA team in Birmingham. If in the unlikely event they manage to win out they would then probably end up in playing their bowl game in Charlotte against and ACC team – this is best case scenario at this point. This is not exactly the situation they were hoping for this season.

While I’ve been quick to fade Rutgers the past few weeks, I really had to take an extra look at this game because Army is anything but a strong team this year.
After further review this line looks correct on paper, I would favor Rutgers by 3 TDs on a Neutral field so +18 at Army looks about right. While normally I would likely pass on such a close line there’s a few factors I did not consider yet while analyzing the game. Coach Schiano said his Rutgers team came out of the Connecticut game banged up though he thinks everyone will still be playing come Friday. Also I’m using the default 3 points for Army’s home field advantage and perhaps it might be worth a bit more than 3 point. This is a close on in terms of where the value is but with Teel re-aggravating the thumb injury and other Rutgers players also playing at less than 100% I’ll take a scale downed size bet on Army +19.

My Pick:
Army +19 -105 (BetOnline) 0.79u to win 0.75u

*****College Football Week 11 Saturday Games*************

Week 11 Nationally Televised Early Game POW:
Michigan -2.5 @ Wisconsin
An average to below average football handicapper could easily be deceived when capping this game. These two teams match up based on season statistics about as close on paper as you’ll ever find. There is a very slight edge to Michigan overall but this should be more than offset by Wisconsin’s home field advantage in this game. When you look at the Badgers 5-0 record at home at first glance and you’ll also be very inclined to take Wisconsin in this game.

Michigan has the 33rd overall strength of schedule and Wisconsin has the 42. There is not a major difference there as SOS is not a complete science.

When digging a little deeper though the first thing you might notice is how poor Wisconsin’s home schedule actually was. The only of the 5 teams they’ve played who has a winning record at this time is The Sub-Division’s Citadel team who is 5-4 on the season.

If you cap this game based on the previous 8 games each team played the Wolverines become the clear choice. I have Michigan about 6 points better on a Neutral so the right line is about Michigan -3.

The spread in this game is pretty much where I thought it would be because if you give a home team 3 points between two big schools in a close match up, everyone would start betting them. -2.5 is a spread to get some more Michigan action but I believe it’s the right side to be on here.

Also when you consider Michigan started 0-2 but has since went on to win 8 straight, a stretch in which they beat Penn State, Purdue and won at Illinois. They find themselves nearing the top 10 rankings again and with a win over Wisconsin this week they’ll be playing at home for the Big 10 Championship next week when they host Ohio State. Michigan also has their star players while still dealing with injuries back on the field, and this is better than playing with the back ups they’ve had to.

My Pick:
Michigan -2.5 -110

Note: I’m willing to lay up to -3 on this game, but I suggest getting on it now to secure the best line.

Week 11 Best Bet – This game can be watched at 3:30 EST on NBC
Air Force -3 @ Notre Dame
I was able to jump on this line early, betting Air Force -2.5 -105 for 3 units, but now that the line is -3 I’ll recommend them as a 2 unit play at -3 -110. I would consider them a 1 unit play at -3.5 to -4. I suggest getting on this line as soon as possible as there might still be some -2.5 -115 or -3 -105 scattered around various places.

Last week we saw Notre Dame hit their all time low on the season as their 43 game win streak over the Navy Midshipmen was snapped as the Irish moved to 1-8 on the season. Their only win this season came in a fluke victory over UCLA were the Bruins were playing a 3rd string QB.

Notre Dame has the 2nd worst offense in Division 1 football averaging just 13.8 points per game. Considering last week they played a poor defense and the game went to triple over time pads those stats, prior to last week Notre Dame Offense had averaged only 10 points per game.

Notre Dames only positive this season has been their defense that had scored about ¼ of their total point on the season through their first 8 games. That positive is not enough though when it comes to their coming match up against Air Force as the Irish’s defensive strength is stopping the pass. They’re not even as strong at stopping the pass as their statistics would lead you to believe because these stats are padded by the fact no teams have really has had to pass against the Irish, because they’ve been so in effective stopping teams who march the ball up the field with the run game. Air Force is a nightmare for Notre Dame as their offensive production comes near entirely from the run game..

Last week Navy went the Notre Dame as a 3.5 point underdog and came out on top by 2 points. I read a post on 2+2 this week where Air Force was referred to as “Navy with a defense” and I couldn’t possibly agree more with that statement.

I’ll predict this game will be rather low scoring and will finish something like Air Force 20 – Notre Dame 13

I recommend a multiple unit bet on Air Force -3 or better, should this line happen to go to -3.5 or -4 then make it a 1 unit bet.

My Pick:
Air Force -3 -110 (Bookmaker.com) 2.2u to win 2u

Week 11 Best Teaser Bet

In college football you should be paying +100 for 2 team 6 point teasers. If your sportsbook does not offer this find a new one for this purpose that does. I personally placed this bet @ 5 dimes.

6 Point Teaser Leg #1 Clemson -2 vs. Wake Forrest
Clemson started the season ranked #25 in the country but dropped two straight games in their 5th and 6th game of the season to fall out of the National Rankings. Clemson who has been ranked as high as #15 this season is right back on track now with absolutely dominating performances 3 weeks in a row and no finds themselves ranked #20. More important to the National rankings at this time is Clemson’s chase for the division title. They control their own destiny to make it to the championship game as they face Boston College (who they trail by one game) next week. Wake Forrest however is certainly not out of the race either. If they happen to pull off an upset in this game they will have the easiest schedule to win out by the two teams in contention. The scenario that returns Wake Forrest to the ACC championship game is a bit more complicated for them then it is for both Clemson and Boston College who would clinch a bid by winning out. Wake Forrest would need to win out and have Boston College lose 2 of their 3 remaining games.

It’s not much of a bold prediction to say Wake is not really in the title picture right now.

This game falls mathematically into two profitable historical teaser subsets, and with Clemson play great ball and Wake pretty much struggling against all quality opponents they’ve faces so far this season I consider this a great teaser play.

6 Point Teaser Leg #2 Arizona State -1 @ UCLA (might even get -0.5 depending on line move, ok to play at up to -1.5)
If UCLA was healthy I would be all over them at +7 in this game as I think they would have a great chance at home to pull off an upset over ASU. The situation here though is that UCLA is not very healthy at all. Their starting QB suffered a concussion last week and then was taken to the hospital after experiencing shortness of breath. In the hospital they determined his right lung had partially collapsed. Their back up QB Olsen is still out with a knee injury. This leaves their converted wide receiver Ossar Rasshan under center to QB this game.
ASU is a far superior team before the injuries. I don’t see them having trouble leaving this game with a victory.

My Pick
2 Team 6 point teaser +100 (5Dimes) Clemson -2 with Arizona State -1 | 1u to win 1u

Best Week 11 Saturday Prime Time Bet – 7:45 EST on ESPN
Florida @ South Carolina
The scenario Florida is in regarding a post season birth is a further reflection of what a strange season it has been. Looking at Florida’s remaining schedule that have a very realistic chance at winning the SEC east. They need to first win this game then win out at home against Florida Atlantic and Florida State; barring any freak injuries or acts of god they’ll certainly be heavy favorites in each of their remaining games. Florida is going to need both Georgia and Tennessee to loose a game and looking at those teams’ schedules it’s probable both will cooperate. The South Carolina Gamecocks are really out of the equation now for the SEC championship.
South Carolina should have some success passing the ball in this game, but this is not likely going to be enough for them to cover as their defensive weakness is very likely to be exploited this week and even their defensive strengths will be less effective then usual. Florida should have great success with the run game and really also have some chances to take shots down the field here as well. Look for Florida to dominate time of possession and win this game by 7-11 points in the end. Also note worthy Tim Tebow is expected to be near 100% health in this game.

My Pick:
Florida -6 -105 (Pinnacle) 1.05u to win 1u

Update: This is trending back as high as -7 some places now, I don’t particularly like this play at anything worst then -6 -110. When I made this post Florida -6 -105 was available and hopefully some of you guys got it. I would lean more towards doing a 2nd teaser with Arizona State involved and getting Florida at -0.5 or -1 @ +100 – than to lay more than -6 -110 on the Gators here.

Note: This blog gets a lot of hits each week and tons of return visitors but rarely gets comments. I’m more than happy to discuss games further or respond to any comments – Even if you disagree with a pick or w/e feel free to post that in this comments box below.