This has been a great football season so far. Those following my picks so far on this blog have went 18-10 for +12.33 units of profit (as a side note we are also 13-5 in the NFL for +9.47 units). We are now approaching the time of the season the games start to become more meaningful. We won’t see as many soft spots on the board this time of the year, but we’ll be able to better quantify our edges but working with more accurate in season data. When I first started looking at this weeks lines It was a bit scary because a lot of the plays I liked this week are going to be on the same side that I suspect a lot of the square action will be on. I’m not going to change my picks for that reason alone but I am most likely going to stick to just single unit plays this week.

Let’s get into the Week 6 college match ups which starts with a play on the board tonight.

Utah +15 @ Louisville
This is a game I felt better about last night then I do today but I’m still going with it for a single unit. Some factors on this: Pinnacle who is often correct when they do this, is hanging out a line which would look to attract action from Louisville bettors and keep action way from those taking Utah. Their line of 14 -108 is much different than the line of 14.5 to 15 that everyone else has on the board.
I realize Utah has struggled on the road but here we are getting more than 2 touch downs against a Louisville team who was one thought to be in BCS contention who has dropped to a dismal 3-2 on the season and lost their last home game to a team they were a 37.5 point favorite over (Syracuse). They started the season off by decimating Murray State 73-10 but the went on to give up 40 points per game their next 3 games where they went 1-2 and were in trouble until late in the game at home to Middle Tennessee (a 1-4 team now) but eventually won by 16 points (58-42). Last week they turned things around at NC State with a 29-10 win, but I’m not convinced yet things have been fully turned around. Rumors at the Lousville might be without their top receiver tonight. I’m backing Utah here because were getting over 2 TDs here and the fact that Pinnacle is leaning Utah makes me feel this is worth a unit.

The +15 line we are taking comes at -110 and is @ Bodog.

An Interesting note I found after writing up my pick.

Almost all touts are against us on this one as a thread at therx reveals that Tony Weston,  Brandon Lang, Ben Burns Mighty Quinn, Selective, Gamblers Data, Cappers Access, Vegas Sports Picks, Psychic Sports are all backing Louisville. I don’t have a habit of ever looking to see how tout consensus do nor do I ever pay much attention to touts so I’m putting this info on the shelf. Perhaps this will be something worth monitoring in the future though as it seems getting the touts picks are fairly easy to do on sports forums. I don’t want the added distraction but might get a friend to start tracking that data.

This doesn’t change my play.