Coming off a solid bounce back week were we went 3-0-1 ATS on our NFL picks our record is now 18-9 on posted free NFL picks for +11.04 units of profit.

This week I’m keeping with the plans to release my picks early and then add on picks late in the week. Let’s get right to it with this week 7 early line free picks.

The first play this week is a teaser bet placed at The Greek.
2 Team 6.5 point teasers -120. 1.2u to win 1u
Saints -2.5 vs. Falcons
Giants -2.5 vs.49ers

This teaser bet doesn’t need much deep analysis other than saying it fits into the category of a historically profitable teaser bet. We got two home teams priced at a true market value of around -350 and -400 on the money lines and we need to cover just 2.5. A -120 betting line needs to win 54.5% of the time to break even. This means each individual leg needs to win about 74% of the time to beak even = (0.74x.0.74=54.8%). A true money line of -350 will cover 77.77% of the time, and a true money line of -400 covers 80% of the time. A winning team will win by 1 or two points happens about 4% of the time overall, but on spreads greater than 7 a team wins by only 1-2 less than 1.5% of the time. Pretty much any way you slice this with the math alone we’ve got ourselves a +EV teaser here.

With our second pick it might be important to get in on the early line. Why I don’t know that for sure I’ve already locked in my bet just in case.

Steelers -3 -120 @ Broncos
Both teams are coming off a bye week and have had plenty of time to prepare for this game. While Denver has historically been a great home team, unless they’ve preformed some miracles during the bye week I think they have a very tough time winning this game. Pittsburg has the 2nd best rush offense in the league and Denver has the worst rush defense in the league. I think were getting a gift here as this line really should be Steelers -4.5 but historical home team coming off a bye data and Denver’s seasons past home performances shade the line in another direction. While this data has some merit I personally feel it holds fewer relevancies this season. If not for a fluke loss (punt return + key turnovers) the Steelers could easily be undefeated this season and they have pretty much dominated most opponents this season. Meanwhile the Broncos could easily be 0-5 if not for squeaking out a 1 point victory against the Bills and escaping with a 3 point win at homes against the Raiders to start the season. Since then they’ve done nothing. The Chargers sure showed the ability to run the ball in Denver. Why would it be any different with the Steelers?
The -120 is available at Bet Jamaica right now with a ½ point buy. It’s also available at -124 Pinnacle, -130 The Greek etc. I’m recommending this play at any line of -3 -130 or better. (Don’t pay -135, don’t lay -3.5). I also highly recommend getting on this one early.
My bet:
Steelers -3 -120 (Bet Jamaica) 1.2u to win 1u

Titans -1 @ Texans
Even after a loss last week there might still be some perception out there that the Texans are a legit wild card contender this year, I’m not even close to sold on that yet. Even without Vince Young the Titans stellar defense, strong kicking game, and good coaching staff is enough to get them a victory in this game. There is a lot of talk that Vince Young just wins games, and a lot of people poke fun at that comment – but its not just Vince Young – this team is well conditioned/coached. I won’t repeat the same stuff each week so I’ll just leave it at – I like the Titans in this game. If this line switches to Titans +3 (perhaps possible if VY is announced as out for the game) then this becomes a 2 unit play. At any line between Titans +2.5 to Titans -2.5 this is a 1 unit play.
My bet:
Titans -1.5 -111 (Matchbook) 1.11u to win 1u

Check back later in the week for add on plays as well as on Sunday for potential half time and late add-ons.

Sunday’s Add on Picks

Jets +7.5 -125 (Bet Jamaica with a 1 point buy) at Cincy.
This is one of my favorite picks this week but I purposely waited till Sunday to post it so we can find the line we need. The Bengals might have good talent but they’re performing as poor as their head coach looks right now (he is patrolling the sidelines with a walker/crutches). The Bengals forced 6 turnovers week 1 and got the victory over the Ravens but since then have dropped 4 straight. The Jets have their own struggles this season but have a far better defense than the Bengals and have the offense to score against this poor Bengals defense.
My Pick
Jets +7.5 -125 (Bet Jamaica – *using 1 point buy) 1.88u to win 1.5u

2 Team 6 point Teaser -110 TheGreek

Titans +8.5 : Breaking news that Vince young is going to likely back up Collins in this game has pushed the Titans from a 1.5 favorite over the Texans to a 2.5 point underdog. Earlier in the week I posted I liked the Titans to win this game with or without VY, but at the time really expected Young would likely play. I still stand by the earlier analysis but could not pass on getting an extra unit down in a basic strategy teaser. The Titans offense that involved Collins might even be more challenging for the Texans as their team is already only about average on stopping the runs and pass and is susceptible to big pass plays. Big pass plays are more likely with Collins then they are with Young anyways. I don’t feel this change has all that much value.

Redskins -2 : This falls under a basic strategy teaser. Both teams are really banged up offensively but the Cardinals are down to their 3rd string QB. In this teaser I’m siding with the Redskins defense to be the highlight of this game.

1.1u to win 1u

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Patriots -15.5 +101 (Pinnacle) @ Miami

This line is certainly shaded and should probably be Pats -10.5 but as long as the Pats keep covering any spread handed to them I’m going to continue to roll with it myself. I’ll take this one small 0.60u to win 0.61u