We’re coming off another outstanding week having gone 4-1-1 for +2.91 units. Heading into tomorrows NFL week 8 action we’re now 22-10 for +13.95 units on the season.

Lets get right into it with our Free NFL Week 8 Picks and Predictions:

Titans -6.5 -120 (w/ ½ point buy at TheGreek).
This game is really a complete miss-match. The Raiders have a poor pass offense so the fact the Titans have a suspect pass defense is a wash in this game. This game comes to a match up of two of the top rush offenses in the league squaring off. The kicker in this game is that the Titans have the best rush defense in the league while Oakland has the 4th worst in the league. On top of this game being a complete mismatch already on team’s strengths the Raiders defense is not entirely healthy and on the offensive side their key running back is not 100% either. I like the line movement here and the ability to move the Titans down to -6.5 for -120 as they should win this game handily but this is also a game where the clock should keep moving and should yield a relatively low final score – this makes me prefer the point buy in this one.
My play:
Titans -6.5 -120 | 1.2u to win 1u (TheGreek).

Panthers +7 -110 (Bodog).
The Colts had a day less to prepare for this game coming off a Monday night win. They head out on the road again this week to take on the Panthers in what could be a look ahead game. Sure the Colts facing a road opponent should be focused but you can’t help but think about the match up against the Pats coming the following week which has huge implications towards which team will have home field advantage later in the playoffs. Another huge plus for the Panthers is their 50 year veteran at QB - how old is he actually? I have no idea but he’s old, and yes I am being sarcastic but In all seriousness I like this game based on several historical trends. Back to back road games, short week, team coming off bye, home underdog etc etc. You name and the historical trends point to the Panthers in this game.
My play:
Panthers +7 -110 | 1.1u to win 1u (Bodog)

Teaser of the Week:
2 team 7 point teaser -130 (available many places)
Giants -2.5
The Dolphins are in complete disarray. They’re without Zach Thomas and Reynaldo Hill. The only reason they’ve looked even remotely decent the last couple weeks was the Ronnie Brown rushing attack, but oops he is gone now too. It’s sad to say so this early in the season; but, what do the Dolphins have to play for now other than the #1 draft pick? The Giants are playing good ball which was a surprise based on preseason predictions but its come time to give them credit as a true NFC contender this year. Also should note that this game is in London so it’s not a home game for either team while technically the Giants are listed as the road team.
Chargers -2 (or -2.5)
The Chargers are really coming together now and have put in solid games back to back. The Texans are on the road in a hostile environment and might go with a not 100% first year starting QB or their back up who actually preformed quite well last week. I really like this side of the teaser but it also fit well as the most mathematically value to match with the first leg above which has the large edge of the two.
My play:
Teaser: Giants -2.5 & Chargers -2 -130 | 1.3u to win 1u Bet Jamaica

One half unit play:
Patriots -16 -104 (Pinnacle)

Same reasoning I gave every other time we took the Pats this season. They are a team that play to cover the spread and despite the line being heavily shaded against them they continue to cover week in and week out. I’ll take it.
My play:
Patriots -16 -104 (Pinnacle) 0.52u to win 0.5u

Please check back later as I’m considering the Browns tomorrow and have my eye on a couple other games which I might add if the lines move tomorrow in the direction needed.

Check back about an hour before game time for my NFL Week 8 Monday night pick.

Update 7:15 EST Monday Night (October 29, 2007)

Green Bay Packers +3 @ Denver Broncos -3 (Posted Total 43.5)
This line seems pretty close to dead on to me. If I was forced to pick a side tonight I would go with the Broncos -3. The Packers have the worst running game in the league and the Broncos defense matches up quite well with the Packers passing game. Add in the noise factor for home field advantage and i think the Broncos are the better side in this game. I don’t think the Broncos chances of covers (need 4 to cover, 3 is a push) are great enough though to over come the juice. I don’t see a play on this game. If by some chance your bookie has an off line such as Broncos -2.5 bet it, or Packers +3.5 bet it - but not at more than -110. For me I am passing and not taking either side as far as the spread is concerned.

The play I’m making tonight is a bet on the over/under points scored total.

The touts all seem to be pushing the over hard in this game which has moved the line all the way from 41 to 43.5 (consensus), 44.5 (Best Under line). Personally I’m going the opposite and will be putting in a bet on Broncos/Packers under 44.5 1.1u to win 1u @ Bodog.

There is plenty of statistical evidence to make a bettor lean over in this game, but when you really look at this match up, the defense is heavy favorites for both teams. This should be a long drawn out low scoring game. It will not be low because the clock keeps moving it will be low because the defense will prevail for at least one if not both these teams tonight.

My play:
Denver/Green Bay Under 44.5 -110 (Bodog). 1.1u to win 1u.