Despite a tough NFL Sunday in week 5 it’s been a great season so far with the overall record on posted free NFL picks now at 15-9 for a total of 7.04 units of profit. I had a reader email me this week asking if it would be possible for me to sell him an early report on the NFL games and after thinking about it I decided I’ll just go ahead and post it here free for everyone.

I’m not sure I can do this every week but what I will attempt to do is start releasing my picks two times each week, once early in the week and once the late night / early morning before game time.

Here are my Early NFL Free Picks for Week 6.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars – spread -6½ (-110) Bookmaker
This is an interesting match up. Both these teams have played a handful of suspect teams this season and only one team has played against a clear superior opponent, that being the Texans who were beat only by 6 at home to the Colts. In recent weeks the Jags are really coming together while the Texans are starting to come unraveled. If the Texans last road trip (to Atlanta) is any indication of how they might perform in Jacksonville, they’re in for a disappointing Sunday. While laying 6.5 in what should normally be a low scoring match up in an important division game might not be the best idea in most cases, the Texans are really banged up – several key players are likely to be taken the field at less than 100% Sunday. I don’t believe their will be much harm in holding off to see if this line hits 6, but I suspect 6.5 will be the right number and some of the squarer books will have it at 7. This is a no play at anything worst than -6.5 -110 (don’t pay -115, don’t lay 7) but is worth a unit at -6.5

My play:
Jacksonville Jaguars -6½ (-110) Bookmaker 1.1u to win 1u

Tennessee Titans (+3) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Game -115 Pinnacle

The thing that scares me the most in this game is turnovers. If the Titans make to many mistakes it will cost them but if they play smart and protect the ball they will win this game outright. The Titans have an edge in both special teams and their offense matches up quite well against the Tampa Bay defense. Why normally I would not back a team who is much more turnover prone than their opponent I’m going to have to put that aside this week because of many overwhelming indicators and ATS statistics which favor the Titans in this match up. When all else is laid out on paper there is one area that pushes me from a strong lean to a solid bet on the Titans and its that when the game is on the line and its close in the end I want my money on the Titans. They are the team who is 13-3 ATS in their past 16 games. They have yet to give up a single point this season in the 4th quarter and their defense has stepped up time and time again to keep them in the game. The Buccs on the other hand seem to play quite well when things are going their way but have a tendacy to panic when things don’t. I predict the Titans cover the spread as the most likely occurrence or the Buccs win this game by a bunch do to Titans mistakes.

Match up favors Titans | Turn Over favors Buccs | Home Field offset by he +3 line | Intangibles favor the Titans which make this worthy of a bet.

The intangibles being: The Titans are the team that is better mentally prepared. Their players and coaching staff perform much better under pressure than the players and coaching staff of the Buccs (This is not a knock on Gruden, he is a hard working and passionate coach but he tends to let his emotions get the best of him sometimes in pressure situations). I suppose the best way to say it is that the Titans are a close knit bunch driven by a winning attitude. There is no quit in this team. I suspect Vince Young has a short memory and will execute better in this game then he did the last. If he does, The Titans will win this game outright.

It is important to get this line Titans +3 (Pay as little as possible but, be willing to lay as much as -120). This is a no play at anything worst than Titans +3 -120 (Do not pay -125, do not take +2.5).

My play:
Tennessee Titans (+3) -115 Pinnacle 1.15u to win 1u.

New York Giants (-3) vs Atlanta Falcons for Game -118 Pinnacle *w/ ½ point buy

The Giants lost their first two games of the season to Dallas (5-0) and Green Bay (4-1) but since then have been playing great ball. They’ve beat Washington. Philly and the Jets the past 3 weeks covering the spread in each game moving to 3-2 on the season both straight up and against the spread.

Atlanta is 1-4 on the season but has managed to cover the spread their past 2 games. It might be time for Atlanta to make a QB change as well as start handing the ball off to Norwood more often the Dunn. This team has shown some signs of life but is likely a while away from turning their season around.
The Giants have performed well as a favorite covering 7 of their last 8 in this situation. It’s never a good idea though to lay significant points on the road which is why I got on this while the line is still 3 with the anticipation that the line could potentially move later in the week as Giants are usually a popular team to bet and the Falcons had every chance possible to steal a victory in Tennessee last week handed to them on a silver platter but could not get the job done. Public perception on the Giants is high while it’s quite low on the Falcons.

I think it’s important to get on this game early

This is a no play at anything worst than Giants -3 -120 (shop around and get yourself the best line possible, if the line is -3.5 buy a ½ point but don’t pay more than -120).

My play
New York Giants (-3) -118 Pinnacle *w/ ½ point buy. 1.18u to win 1u

I’ll likely have a couple more plays out by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning – Check back then for updates.

Add on pick..

Saints +7.5 -135 (Bet Jamaica)

This is currently at +6 -105 @ Bet Jamaica. I’m purchasing 1.5 points to get it up to +7.5. This is a 2 unit play.