I followed up last weekends 10-1 performance with a 3-1 college football Saturday this weekend. Now it’s on to the NFL were I went 5-0 last weekend and have 6 six free picks on the board. First let me say (because I’m sure I’ll have some friends who might call me out on this) there were 2 games I bet and not post last week on the NFL so my true record was 6-1 last week. I don’t count plays I don’t recommend in my record though as it would not be fair to readers when I picked winners to count them – so know that when I reference my record it is only for free picks which I’ve posted on this blog (That is about 80% of my overall bets).

The total record on posted NFL free picks is now 13-5 for +9.47 units of profit.

I’m not usually a big fan of making a lot of picks in a single day under normal circumstances, but we’ve reach the time of year where the crazy amounts of value on stand out games are a bit dried up and we need to start pressing our small edges more. Even so 6 is a lot of games for me. I almost even had a 7th game but thought better of taking the Steelers this weekend.

Here are my selections and write ups for the weeks. the lines given represent the best line currently available at the time of this post.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers -3 -115 Matchbook
To be honest this line smells bad to me, but there is not much I can do about that. Even though the Packers are a team that is so one dimensional and easy to prepare for the Bears are far from competing with that one dimension. For the Bears to win this game it will take a Farve melt down (something he has not done in leading the Packers to 8 straight victories while passing to the check down receiver more times in these 8 games then he did in his previous 233 stars *obvious exaggeration*) or a couple Hester miracles. I don’t see it. I won’t go on with all kinds of meaningless stats such as Farve scoring more TDs against Chicago then any other team, or Chicago having done so well in the past 4 at GB or any of that normally good stuff. This is the 2007 Packers who boast a 4-0 record and have played well on all sides of the ball, against the 2007 Chicago Bears who are banged up defensively and have major problems on the other side of the ball. I suspect this will be a very popular square pick but something I learned years ago. Fading squares for the sole purpose of fading squares can sometimes be a big mistake. We are not getting extra value in this line because of the squares so for the most part it defeats the purpose. Even if a game had a completely massive edge it will still lose 40% of the time and the conspiracy nuts will start twirping on the forums about how it was a trap game. They don’t say much the 60% of the time it wins on games like this. Just to be clear the edge is not so large it would yield 60% winner, that was purely and example. This line here has stayed close to in check all week. There are plenty of indicators that the bears might be a sharp play such as several ATS sets working in their favor, the Packers are last in the league in rushing, the fact this is a must win division game and much more. If I lose this bet it won’t be the first time I made a bet that failed to see Brett Farve magic on a nationally televised game played under the lights of Lambeau field, but I feel there Is plenty enough here to justify taking a unit on the Cheese here.
A quote courtesy of Yahoo Sports:
“Our season is not over,” linebacker Brian Urlacher said. “But we have to get better. We stink right now.”
Personally I don’t see how they get better over 1 week.
The line I am taking is not available wide spread but has been available quite often at matchbook all weekend so far. Its also currently available at -120 @ WSEX and -117 at Pinnacle.
So my play is:
Green Bay Packers -3 -115 Matchbook

Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots -16.5 +100 Pinnacle
Its fairly amazing how no matter how high Vegas sets the line the Patriots just keep on covering it. You would almost have the think they might even be playing with the intention of covering. I know this is quite unlikely but how else does a team go 52-23-3 ATS in their last 78 games. This season so far the Pats have won all their games by more than 20 points, in fact their averaging a 25 point victory in all 4 games this season, coincidence? Yeah maybe, but I see not reason not to keep riding the Pats until this trend end.
The only concern I have in this game is of all the coaches Belichick might be a little less aggressive against in garbage time it might be Crennel, but I think that might be a stretch. The Pats look to be out for blood this season and their team has more experience playing together now and gets Rodney Harrison back this week. I don’t bet big favorites often in pro sports but I’ll continue to ride the Pats till given a reason to stop..
Patriots -16.5 +100 Pinnacle 1u to win 1u

Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans -8 -105 TheGreek
This is a game that makes me feel sick to even think about. I would normally never consider giving 8 points when dealing with a young NFL team nor would I normally consider doing so with any team coached by Fisher who is a text book example of the calculating conservative style of coaching. This guy doesn’t ever need to think twice because his calls are predetermined in pressure situation. He is the type of coach to protect a win and play the odds more than go for a blow out. If you think squares are pumped about laying over a TD on the favorite here you are fooling yourself. This game will have action in both directions from both types of bettors. While everything in my gut tells me not to bet this – this is one game I need to go with my stats models over my guts. This is one of those tips you might not ever hear me mention again so you better jot this one down. In fact I’m so shocked I am giving this information away for free – I ask if you decide to bet this pick because of my advice and it wins. Do me a favor and sign up for a sports book using one of the links on this site….
Drum roll please:
There are few systems in pro football that have yet to be exploited and adjusted for. This is not one of them. Home favorites coming off a by who are favored 7 to 9.5 have won ATS 62% of the time since 1985 – This is one of those stats you’ll here mentioned as an unnamed subsets that is not mentioned specifically. A sharp poster at SBR gave it away this week, so I might as well pass it on too just this one time. Win or lose today this is a profitable system play that will win great money long term.
Another interesting stat but it was not used in my picks. Titan’s QB Vince Young is 9-3 ATS when facing a team coming off a win.
My Pick:
Titans -8 -105 TheGreek 1.05u to win 1u

Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers +3.5 -105 WSEX
As is becoming a trend for me I’m going with Natedogg on 2+2 forum pick. His stategy involved finding the ugliest game on the board where the public is all over their oppoenent and then betting against the public. I don’t bet Natedogg’s opinion ever week but when the BSPs are picking a road favorite I’ll gladly take the home dog with the free hook point near 100% of the time. This one I’ll admit though is quite ugly, lets just hope that Raven’s QBs keep pretending they’re a Bears QB and that Trent Dilfer is the next Jeff Garcia.
San Francisco 49ers +3.5 -105 WSEX 1.05u to win 1u

Buccaneers +10 -115 Bodog @ Colts
I’m not sure if the Colts are playing mind game with us or what, but they have quite a few players listed as questionable this week. Marvin Harrison missed his 3rd straight practice on Friday (knee injury) and has been downgraded from questionable to doubtful for this game. Running back Joseph Addai is also dealing with a shoulder injury and is listed as questionable which is the same status Bob Sanders is listed at while he deals with rib injury. Tampa Bay is playing well this season  Tampa Bay has been playing good ball all season and is 1st in the NFL in total defense and has an offense which is only average overall but they are brought up to that average mark because of a strong rush attack which averages 4.2 yards per play. This game is looking to be a running game which should also yield a low score. I had though about taking the under in this game but if Sanders ends up being out in this game I think it will allow the Buccs to break a few big plays and the way the Colts just seem to find points at home is scary. I feel better about Buccs +10 then I do with the under.
I wish I had got on this before the line move but it did not seem mid week that the Colts injuries were as severe as they were and it now appears it might be risky playing these players this week with them with a comfortable 4-0 record and an entire ¾ of a season left to play. Thankfully there is Bodog to post a nice square line but at a bit higher pricing, oh well I’ll take it.
My Play :
Buccaneers +10 -115 Bodog 1.15u to win 1u

Detroit Lions +4 -108 5 Dimes @ Washington Redskins
I’m going against a lot of pros I know on this pick and I was almost even talked out of making it. I decide to push that all aside and go with my analysis and rather than my friends on this game. While Detroit has a 3-1 record they have played some weak teams this year. This would be a good argument if it was not for the fact that the Redskins are also weak opponent who are less likely to exploit the lions weaknesses as the Lions are likely to exploit the skins. Some reasons this match up really favors the Lions is that while the Lions have defensive troubles they do about average against the run. Thankfully for the Lions the Redskins have not done well this season passing and are the type of team who prefers to run the ball and control the time of possession. Redskins QB Jason Campbell in 3 games this season has thrown just 3TD and 2 INT and has a 69.6 QB rating. The Redskins simply don’t have what it takes to fully exploit Detroit’s weaknesses. Meanwhile on the offensive side of the ball the Lions are top in the league in passing (Red Skins about average on stopping the pass) with their QB John Kitna has been the surprise of the season thus far with an amazing 105.6 QB rating and is completing over 70% of his passes, he has 8 TD and 4 INTs through 4 games. The Lions are ranked 4th in total offense at 28.3 points per game. It would be interesting to see what this line might have been if this game was in Detroit. In any case this match up uses only this seasons stats which is dangerous this early into the season. If it was not so early these stats would make the Lions a 3 unit play, but still with some decent evidence of who each team actually is or might be, I fully feel a unit play on the Lions is well justified.
Lions +4 -108 5 Dimes 1.08 units to win 1u