Last week we went 3-2 and picked up only 0.20 units of profit. It’s never bad when our worst weeks still yield a small profit and for the 2007 NFL Season we are now 25-12 for +14.15 units of profit on posted free NFL picks heading into Week 9.

Lets get right into the Week 9 Picks starting with the game of the week. This is what everyone wants to know: Who do I bet on in the New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts so let’s get right into it with that game.

New England Patriots -5.5 @ Indianapolis Colts
This game is being hyped up to be the regular season game of the century and all this hype is probably well deserved. The defending Super Bowl Champions are 7-0 on the season and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games facing a team with a winning record, they’re at home and facing a Patriots team that appears to be from another planet. The Patriots are 8-0 both straight up and against the spread this season and they’ve beaten their opponents by an average of 25 points per game.

This line opened at -4 most places, for a split second it was at -3 at TheGreek. This was before professionals hammered the New England side of the line driving it as high as -6 some places and it’s possible the line continues to grow. This does not necessarily mean that the professional bettors love the Pats in this game as it could mean they expect the public to be betting the Pats and they wanted to lock in the best line to sell off of later in the week. There is no real way for us to know exactly what these professional sharps intentions are/were however the fact the Pats have been heavily bet is no secret.

I told those of you who read the early edition of this post that I would be making a pick on this game later in the week and check back before game time.

This game is still very hard for me to decide on because the Pats stats are so inflated from beating up on soft teams. None the less New England does have on big win on the road against the Cowboys, a game they actually managed to trail in the 4th quarter.

My recommendation is that if you need to bet this game, as I am sure many recreational bettors prefer to do, is to take the Pats @ -5.5 -115 or better. Once that line hits the +6 or more on the Colts side I start to really lean the direction of the Colts in this game.

The primary reason for this pick is that we might as well keep riding the Pats until they fail to cover. So far they have covered every spread handed to them this season.

My official Picks
Pats -5 -108 (Pinnacle) 1.08u to win 1u

NFL Week 9 Teaser of the Week. This teaser is being placed Bookmaker.com as a 2 team 6 point teaser.

Teaser Leg #1 Buffalo Bills +7.5
This Bills have been playing great ball lately and its not entirely because Edwards is playing QB. The QB change sparked some new life into the teams as a whole and they’ve started to build confidence again. Now that the Bills have won 3 straight (after having nearly knocked off the cowboys as well) team moral should be high and the Bills believe their competitors again. I think they’ll play well for Losman who gets it starting job back thanks to an Edwards injury.

The Cincinnati Bengals are the complete opposite of the Bills. This team has sunk so low that they opened as a 3 point underdog to the Bills but moved to being a 1.5 point favorite after the QB situation was announced.
Both of these teams have played a similar schedule this season (Both played the pats) (Bills played Dallas) (Bengals played Steelers) and both have played 7 games so I feel comfortable with breaking this game down based on offense and defensive stats on the season so far.

This match up certainly favors the Bengals on a neutral field as they should be able to move the ball well through the air. With the home field advantage factored in and I can only imagine how bad moral must be on the Bengals players right now l I put this game at about even. When we’re able to tease a home underdog up to 7.5 points here, I like that and believe it’s the best play on this game.

Teaser Leg #2 Seahawks +7.5
This game is close to being an even match up. I think the bookies would have been better served to set this line as a pick in order to avoid teaser plays like the one we’re making, but I’m certainly glad they didn’t. I don’t see any categories and subsets that give the Browns enough of an edge to be favored in this game other than home field advantage. This game has the potential for Seattle to open their game up a bit and perhaps finally get some production out of their run game. The Seahawks should be able to move the ball good enough through the air here as well. We get +7.5 in for this leg in a game that really is a pick em, – meaning we crossed the 3 and the 7 with this failing into the criteria of a basic strategy teaser play. I’ll take it.

Note: To get this teaser right now you’ll need to use Bookmaker.com, as the other books have the teams listed as +1 with some extra pricing on the favorite side.

My play:
Teasing Bills +7.5 w/ Seahawks +7.5 for -110 at Bookmaker.com | 1.1u to win 1u.

Arizona Cardinals +4 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a BSP pick to me but I also see plenty of good reason to make it. The Buccs have had great success at home this season and they became a team a lot of people were high on. After looking back on their wins now that the season has developed I have to wonder how good impressive those wins actually were. They beat the Saints who really had trouble getting started this year and then beat the Rams and Titan in close games. The Titans nearly blew a game at home to Atlanta this season and then were in a close down to a wire game with the Raiders last week + The Rams have yet to win a game. I think the Buccs are probably still over rated even after their value depreciated this week when they lost to the Jags..

The Cardinals are really banged up right now, but they are coming off the bye week. Possibly the Cardinals have had a chance to get healthy but at the very least they’ve had a full week to prepare for this game using the players they do have available.

The Cardinals are 3-4 on the season but three of the loses came via a combined 8 points. The only game they were really out of was a 15 point defeated to the Panthers but in that game Warner was injured in the 1st quarter and they had to rely on their 3rd string QB Tim Rattay who entered this season with probably little expectation he would play a game this season. If you put that loss which fell under extreme circumstances aside, the Cardinals have preformed quite well this season deposit their 3-4 record.
My play:
Arizona Cardinals +4 -110 (5 Dimes) 1.1u to win 1u.

Update November 4, 12:39 AM EST: This line is now +3.5 most places, those of you who acted early when i first posted this hopefully got the bet in then. I still recommend this play at +3.5 but for tracking purposes will be using the line as it was (+4 -110) when I posted my official pick.

This is all I like right now in terms of the early lines, Check back later on this week for more free week 9 picks which will be posted below this line here.

Update: 2 plays added at 1:48 AM Sunday November 4, 2007.

Green Bay Packers +2.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs

Part of my opinion on this game is not popular amongst a few of my friends who are Brett Farve haters, having once been one of them I’ve regained a lot of respect for him as a come back player who has lead his team to a 10-1 record over the past 11 games. During that time he has extended many records and broken several others. I’ll try not to repeat the same stuff over and over but the Packers are becoming a team of character who now have the confidence needed to overcome adversity on the game field. Brett Farve has beaten every team in the NFL over his career other than the Chiefs and for a guy who appears sincere when claiming nothing he is not about personal accolades, he sure does one hell of a job accomplishing them. When Farve has a chance to add something significant to his already first ballot hall of fame resume, I personally want my money on him.

With all the Bret Farve drool and square talk aside, Green Bay also matches up very well in this game. They have the better offense and a good defense. The Chiefs might have the defensive edge in the match up but the Packers offense and also strong defense will carry them in this game.

In what should be a close and low scoring game, I’ll take the Packers +2.5 in this one as opposed to the moneyline.

My Pick:
Packers +2.5 -110 (TheGreek) 1.1u to win 1u.

Week 9 Sunday Night Game.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 -110
To get this line we are going to buy ½ a point at Bet Jamaica who currently has the Eagles listed as +3 +110, we can buy half a point off the 3 for 20 cents and I like that much better than playing a line with moderately high push probability – I’d much rather have that push gives us a win.

With Dallas coming off a bye week and the Eagles coach dealing with emotional family issues, I initially thought this game would show up as an advantage to Dallas. Of course it would appear that way with Dallas being the best team in the NFL not led by Tom Brady or Payton Manning, 3rd best overall. I was actually surprised after breaking this game down to find a lot of value in the Eagles here this week.

The Eagles have really been a disappointment this season but their offense has shown many signs they’re capable of performing better than they have while at the same time their defense is really coming together, getting healthy and just clicking as a team. My statistical break down including the bye week has Dallas as a 6 point favorite in this game on a neutral field. That would equate to a spread of Dallas -3 when on the road in Philly. Looking a bit further I think that Dallas -3 -105.

While I do not give it a single week’s performance heavy weight I do make a bit of adjustment to account for that shade of Dallas down to -105 and here is why: Both teams last opponent was the Vikings. The Eagles defeated the Vikings by 7 on the road in Minnesota; While Dallas defeated the same team at HOME in Dallas by 10 points.. The scores were extremely close to each other in the number of points scored and allowed. With it being much more difficult to win on the road in the NFL than it is to win at home, I see that the Eagles were comparatively better against the Vikings than the Cowboys were. I only gave this a 5 cent move on both sides pricing wise and did not move the spread because of it. With all this considered I calculate the fair line in this game to be Eagles +3 -115. The fact we can get the Eagles +3.5 -110 makes them easily a 1 unit bet. Perhaps it could be argued the bet is worth more than a unit but with some of the uncertainties regarding Reed’s coaching focus, I’ll stick to a 1 unit play here.

My Pick
Eagles +3.5 -110 (Bet Jamaica w/ half point by) 1.1u to win 1u.

Be sure to check back later for updates, perhaps a Monday night pick on the Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, and add on picks.

Update 7:30 EST Monday November 5th

Steelers @ Ravens Over/Under 36

I don’t have any time to do an sort of right up on this pick so I’ll just post the Pick.

My Pick

Ravens/Steelers OVER 36 -110 (Bet Jamaica) 1.1 u to win 1u