This has been a good season so far. Posted free picks are now 22-11 (66%) +15.80 units through the first 6 weeks of the college football season. This week I’ve spent a lot of time already looking into games and have 4 1 unit plays ready. The first is for tonight’s game (Wednesday) and the 2nd is for Thursday nights game. For Saturday I have the remaining 2 single unit plays as well as 3 bonus ½ unit picks posted.

NCAAF week 7 picks

Navy @ Pittsburgh Over 53

This week kicks off early with a Wednesday night game on National Televised game at Pittsburgh. I liked Navy +4.5 in this game until I took a look at the total. This game should be very high scoring and the fact that it will be so is pretty well concealed. You would expect that when you have a team like Pittsburg who on paper ranks very well defensively (in terms of yards allowed) facing a team like Navy who leads the country in rushing that the total points scored would be low.. After looking though and seeing a total of 53 I realized there must be something more to this so took a look deeper to see the match up further. The first think I found is that the Pittsburgh defensive rankings are inflated – its rather easy to give up less yards then most football teams when your opponents start off so often with a short field. The next thing I notices is how poor Navy is defensively. This team is used to scoring and giving up a bunch of points against bad football teams. I’m glad I took a look even further into this match up to realize how poor Navy’s special teams and that they don’t have a strong FG kicker. The smartest bet on this game is to avoid the sides and go with over 53.

My play:
Over 53 -110 Bodog 1.1u to win 1u

Florida State -5½ at Wake Forrest

I jumped on this game earlier in the week thinking I would have a chance to sell it on an exchange or play for middle. I was fully expecting the public to be all over FSU in this game for a variety of reason but am surprised to see that as of Wednesday night only 63% of the public are on the FSU spread and this is offset a decent amount by a lot of money on the Wake Forrest Moneyline. The line is still where it was when I bet this early in the week and the more I’ve looked at this game they more I’ve grown to actually side the same way the public sides in this game. Here are some factors I’ve thought about.

#1 Wake Forrest is not a good football team. While public perception might be high on FSU it does not change the fact that Wake is also highly over rated. They have been very lucky to have a winning record at this point in the season. The momentum factor certainly favors FSU coming into this game.

#2 there is a big revenge factor in this game as FSU was shocked to be beat 30-0 last season by Wake. Wake was a surprising team last year all the way around but this year has been somewhat disappointing despite their winning 3-2 record. Some people don’t give enough credit to revenge games, in college football division games revenge is an important factor to consider because it’s real. The team seeking revenge has that extra motivation to draw from when the pressure is on or they start to tire.

#3 there is a big talent mismatch in this game as FSU has the better match up all over the field. It’s quite likely Wake has trouble running the ball here and is forced to become on dimensional on offense.
As much as I love home underdogs I’m taking laying the chalk on the road here and am keeping my play of: Florida State - spread -5½ (-110) The Greek

Auburn @ Arkansas -2½

So far the public is all over Auburn in this game which I like considering we’re backing a small home favorite here in Arkansas. This match up heavily favors our side with the leading factor being Auburn’s struggles against very physical and hard hitting teams, especially those teams which also have a physical run game. I might consider putting another unit on this game if it was not for the fact that Auburn has been playing really focused and smart football. Still I feel Arkansas really should be favored in this game on a neutral field and here we have them only laying 2.5 at home. This is one of my stronger single unit plays this week. My play Arkansas Spread -2½ -110 Bet Jamaica 1.1u to win 1u

Georgia Tech at Miami Florida (-2.5)

Both these teams are coming off upset losses last week with Miami suffering the worst of the defeats against North Carolina while GT lost on the road to a respectable Maryland team. This is a game I had circled on my schedule a couple weeks back and was hoping to find some value on the Hurricanes against an under achieving and highly overrated Yellow Jackets team. Unfortunately that angle was lost and we have what should be an interesting match up in two teams who absolutely need a win to salvage any hopes at any sort of productive season. On paper this is a fairly close match up and I actually can see where GT backers might be coming from. What leans me in the opposite direction, still taking the Hurricanes that is, is when their backs are pressed against the wall this team has had a history of bouncing back well “at home” over the years. I’ve counted Miami out to soon too many times in the past to make that mistake again. In a close match up on paper I give the edge to Miami whose home field advantage is certainly real and has a history of performing well in these situations.
Miami Florida (-2.5) -107 (Pinnacle) 1.07u to win 1u

3 half unit plays:
Arizona U (+22) -112 Pinnacle
Tennessee -7 -105 Bet Online
Boston College -13.5 -115 (I have not bet this yet, I’m expecting to wait till Friday’s reduced juice at Bet Jamaica or other places who offer this and then buy the ½ point instead)

Stay turned for any potential add on plays as they might come. I’m making this post quite early this week so add on plays might be more likely this week then in other weeks.