This week I put more time into breaking down games then I usually do. My NCCAF free picks managed to go 3-3 last week but we still finished down 1.19 units for the week. This was a rare losing Saturday for these picks as I’m now 25-14 (64%) for +14.61 units on the season for college football. The reason I put so much time in was not at all because I’m pressing. I’m more than thrilled with the season results so far as I’m sure are most of you following these picks. Its just that this week I had to look really deep for value after discovering most of the higher profiled games are really sharp this week. Perhaps all this craziness with big upsets is starting to give books more balanced of action. Whatever the case is unfortunately there are not many TV games on this weeks free picks.

Best bet of the week: Take Memphis as a pick at @ Rice
To be blunt neither of these teams are very good at all but if you look at the two’s stats without scratching the service Rice appears to be a better team at first. This is very misleading as they’ve been extremely lucky so far this season. Their one win was against a team who’s injured QB was forced to come in with no one else available. Their box scores have been run up because of turnovers of which many were mistakes by their opponents or lucky bounces more so than they were that Rice defense which happens to give up over 43 points per game. These two teams look somewhat even (both garbage) but when adjusting out the lucky plays Memphis has a significant better offense and a slightly better defense. While home field advantage might be a factor its not enough to make this game a pick. On a neutral field I have Memphis as 4 point favorite. Yes it’s fairly sad that my bet of the week comes on such a garbage game but what can I do that’s how the break downs went.
My play
Memphis Pick -105 Bet Jamaica 1.58u to win 1.50u

Florida Gators @ Kentucky +7
This line makes sense to me as Florida is well rested, has an edge on paper, and this is a classic let down game for the Wildcats. The part that surprises me is just how high the line is set. Florida surprisingly has only been on the road twice this season and they struggled at Mississippi and then collapsed late against LSU. Let down game or not this is to many points for them to be playing on the road. I’m going to scale this bet down a little and go with:
Kentucky +7 -110 @ Bodog .88u to win .80u.

This week I found 3 other games I’ve bet a ½ unit on each on. For those with a limited bankroll you might want to skip these games because the edge is slim. Those with a 50-100u bankroll these are certainly worth ½ a unit each.

California -1 0.53u to win 0.50 units (Bet Jamaica)
Western Michigan +1.5 0.53u to win 0.50 units (Bet Online)
Illinois +1.5 0.55u to win 0.5u (Bodog)

Be sure to check in through out the day Saturday for potential updates or add on plays.