We picked up the win on Utah last night starting Week 6 of the college football season 19-10 for 13.33 units of profit. Lets add to that here with another winning week. Before updates and add ons I have 4 free picks here for you plus two leans which will become official recommended bets if I reached the desired line.

Saturday College Football Sports Picks

Oklahoma -12.5 vs Texas (Note this is on Neutral Field)
Last week Oklahoma was ranked #3 in the Nation and Texas was ranked #7. Every year we hear the media hype the Red River Rivalry (an annual game between these two teams) and every year it seems to be nothing more than a channel changer. This year had all the potential to finally be meaningful until both teams got beat outright as huge favorites last week to pretty much give us the same ole over hyped game we are used to – At least it has some betting value.

Last weeks loss should light a fire under both team’s buts. Oklahoma might still be in the hunt because they dropped only 7 spots and are ranked #10 in the Nation. A big win here could earn them some ranking points back and if top teams continue to fall perhaps they still have an outside shot at a National Title. Texas on the other hand dropped 12 spots in the rankings all the way down to #19 after they were beat handily by Kansas State.

In reading up on this game after doing my own analysis I read a lot of one sided reviews whose rights up heavily favored Oklahoma. I won’t go into them all because I’m sure you can find these write ups easy enough. I’m reading things like Oklahoma 16-5 ATS in last 21, the fact Colt is banged up, Texas is over rated an all that.

I’m not sure if I’m making a square pick but I’ll admit my reasons I’m leaning Texas in this game is quite square. These players are not paid professional athletes they are college kids. Texas has struggled all season and its clear the team which has a lot of talent really has not been behind Colt McCoy the way they were Vince Young. Now that push has come to shove I expect Texas to be the team that comes out strong in this game. Oklahoma was the team who lost the most last week despite having dropped much deeper in the rankings. Oklahoma was really in the drivers seat with LSU having a tough schedule ahead and USC also to soon face some challenges. It looked like Oklahoma has the best shot of all the top 5 teams to finish in at least the #2 slot this season. While I’m sure Texas had some thoughts at a National Championship, I don’t think many gave them much of a chance to reach this goal. For Oklahoma having reduced their chances of making the National Title to a mere long shot, I don’t see a bunch of college athletes being able to shake this from their mind. In order to cover this many points they’re going to need to play near mistake free football. I strongly question that when faced with any strong adversity Oklahoma will be able to handle it better than they did in last weeks lost. Yeah my analysis might be square but this is one of those things that just doesn’t show up on paper. I love the idea of buying this to TDs so I did so at Pinnacle getting myself Texas +14 -122 which I felt was better than +12.5 -106. The 16 cents to buy this to a two TD margin seemed more than worth it. For you guys who are not able to use Pinnacle, keep an eye out tomorrow at Bodog, They love posting large dog lines, and if that don’t hit but the game does reach 13 @ Bet Jam or the Greek but the points there, or put in a smaller play at any line 11.5 or better.

I’m personally on this as
Texas +14 -122 1.22u to win 1u (Pinnacle).

Florida +7.5 @ LSU
Florida was another of those top ranked teams who were upset last week; the difference in this game though is Florida is a mature team that’s been in the exact same situations before. Just last year they also lost to Auburn but rallied back and made it to the National Championship game where they easily took care of Ohio State. Expect this team to be prepared and mentally strong deposit coming off a line. Plus check out this ATS Stat: Occasionally I find these bets that look so good on paper but my stomach gets sick and my hands start to shake as I go to bet them as I really think I’m betting on the wrong team. I’ve come to learn though that my head is 100-4 when it’s going against my guts favorite picks. Okay I’m making those numbers up but the situation is real, last week in football (college and pro combined) I went 10-1 ATS and hated most of my plays. While I don’t feel comfortable in giving away the exact data in an open forum or blog, Florida applies to a situation that is 22-7 ATS, which I feel weights very strongly in this game and honestly were getting free points on this spread. I’ll explain:
Last week it would be hard to argue that Florida played bad. They were in a close game, had a chance to win it in the ended up losing it by a FG. They gained 5.7 yards per play (above average against opponent). LSU meanwhile looked awful against Tulane and for a while their looked to be in trouble before breaking away late. Another first half performance like their last one and LSU will be the next top ranked team to be knocked off. There are a lot more stats to show that Florida actually played better than LSU last week, but because the final score did not reflect it we are getting extra points this week. I have this game capped at LSU -1.5 on a Neutral field. I give LSU a larger home field advantage then most teams - 4 points. Had both teams won last week this line would be right around the same line I capped it at -5.5 but because Florida lost after technically playing better than LSU we get the line at a TD plus a hook. That’s enough for me to take this as a solid play.

For some reason this week I am feeling gun shy. I said in my last post that I probably would not make any plays larger than 1 unit but win or lose I can’t respect myself in the morning if I totally ignore the math and don’t add a little extra on this one. I’m going with this play.
Florida +7.5 -110 @ BetEd 1.65u to win 1.5 u

Note on line I am taking: This line is only +7 now most places; BetEd hangs dog lines a lot longer. If you don’t use BetEd, look for a similar line to hopefully pop up at Bodog, if it never does pop up buy the extra points at Bet Jamaica or The Greek to get this line).

Nebraska +6 @ Missouri
I’m so used to betting home underdogs this year its surprising that I’m on my 3rd play of this write up and have yet to take a home team (1st pick is on neural field). This line is just surprising to me because these two teams are fairly evenly matched on paper with Nebraska actually being a slightly better team. This line is either giving far to many points for home field advantage or I’m missing something. In far that perhaps I’m missing something I’m making this a 0.53 to win 0.50 unit play – I have not been careless though to the best of my knowledge this is a sold play.
Nebraska +6 -105 (Bet Online) 0.53 to win 0.50 unit

Georgia Tech Maryland +3.5
Finally 4 plays in I am going with a home underdog This game looks good on paper for GT and historically Maryland applies to a subset that would make the chances of them not covering the spread pretty strong in this game. The thing here though is I personally think Georgia Tech is highly over rated. They went out on the road and got a fluke win over Clemson, but other than that have not looked good this season. They were given a lot of respect preseason and gained more respect after pounding on Notre Dame (a team that would struggle against many Division 1-AA teams) and then beat up on Samford a true Division 1-AA school. Since then they had done nothing, having lost out right as a favorite in weeks 3 and 4, until they got themselves a fluke win in a low scoring game at Clemson and were supposed to jump back on their bandwagon again? Maryland meanwhile has been impressive and clearly one of the more under rated teams in college football. Their 2 losses came from West Virginia (ranked #4 at the time) and a really disappointing 4th quarter collapse to Wake Forrest. Last week they knocked off the #10 team in the Nation in Rutgers. As with most coaching situations I’m sure that others will disagree when I say this, Maryland’s coaching staff will have them well prepared for this game despite his thin line of available QBs – I have a lot of faith in their coaching. While most of this pick is based off of speculation and not concrete data I can’t pass on this one. I think my reasoning is strong enough that I need to bet ½ a unit.
Maryland +3.5 -105 0.53u to win 0.50u (Bodog)

Two other plays I have a strong lean on but need some help in the lines. They will be no plays if I can’ find the line I need but will be ½ unit plays if I do are:

1. Hawaii -38
2. UCLA -19.5
By the direction the line is moving I don’t think I’ll get there. If I do I will post in the comments section when the line becomes available.

As always stay tuned on game day for possible updates being made to this thread below this sentence which might include half time or add on plays.