Coming off another strong week I’ve got several picks for this week (NCAAF Week 10) lined up already based off the early lines.

Let’s start with a recap of last week where posted free college football picks went 6-3 for +3.77 units. This broke down as 2-0 on 1.5 unit free picks, 2-1 on 1.0 unit free picks and 2-2 on 0.5 unit free picks.

Heading into Week 10 we’re now 32-21 for +17.39 units

As I’ve been doing for a while now I’ll post picks on this page through out the week. All edits will be marked with a bold text date and time update mark so you can identify them.

Initial Entry Monday October 30, 2007 5:10 AM EST

Thursday Night Week 10 Game on ESPN
Virginia Tech +2.5 @ Georgia Tech -2.5
At full health these two teams are evenly matched. GT is coming off a bye, and VT is coming off 2 days extra rest/practice. The main factor in my pick here is that Georgia Tech is not at full health with their starting running back out and now his back up likely out as well. The Georgia Tech edge in this game was their rush offense and with that in question the line seems a bit off to me.

I have this game now down a fair line of GT +1. I see a lot of value on buying VT up to +3 so will go that route using TheGreek where we can buy a point to the 3 for just 10 cents (as opposed to 25 cents on many other sites).

My Pick:
Virginia Tech +3 -120 (TheGreek w/ ½ point buy) 1.1u to win 1u

Navy+3.5 @ Notre Dame – My Prediction Navy wins out right but I like the 3.5 point more.

Navy has traveled well this year, now 2-1 on the road this season (4-4 overall). Their first win was against a weak Temple teams, their loss was to then ranked #15 Rutgers. Their big win this season came on the road in a nationally televised Wednesday night game in Pittsburg.

Navy has the top ranked rushing offense in the league and is going against a Notre Dame defense which is below average on stopping the run. One positive note for Notre Dame though is that they’re coming off a bye week so they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for Navy’s one dimensional offense.

The big problem in this game is Notre Dames only real strength is stopping the pass and Navy passing plays come more off an option type offense which is to advanced IMO for Notre Dame to stop effectively even with 2 weeks to prepare.

All else considered I don’t see any reason to give Notre Dame a big edge in any other department so there only big edges are home field advantage and coming off the bye. They are 1-7 on the season and the only game they won their offense had something like 130 yards, in all their losses they were not even close to having a shot at winning any of those games. I think Navy is at least 4 points better than the Irish on average on a neutral field– I don’t think the bye week and home field are enough to compensate for a 7.5 point difference on the line.

If it wasn’t for the bye week I would be more inclined to make this a multi unit bet as the line is probably very shaded with Notre Dame being such a big public team, I do need to give some respect to the bye so I’ll keep this is as a 1 unit play for now.

My pick:
Navy +3.5 -110 (Bookmaker.com) 1.1u to win 1u

Advice should this line not be available later in the week: Obviously be sure to shop around and look for the best line. I consider this full unit play at +3. If plus 3 is not available come game time play the Navy moneyline for +130 or better for ½ a unit.

Troy +17.5 @ Georgia – My Prediction, UGA wins by 14 making Troy +17.5 the right play.

Since starting the season 0-2, losing to #21 Arkansas and #4 Florida, the Troy Trojans have been on the prowl and have now put together 6 consecutive wins. Add how well Troy has been playing with this being a typical letdown scenario for UGA and it equals. 17.5 being to many points to lay. Not even to mention the factor they play Auburn the following week so if they don’t falter from the let down effect they could falter from the look ahead effect (if they do it will be hard to disguish which is the case, but there is enough to say there is a good chance UGA does not perform @ 100% in this game).

Right now at the time of this post the consensus line is 16.5. I’m getting this to +17.5 at Pinnacle by taking their line of Troy +16.5 +101 to Troy +17.5 -114 using the Pinnacle drop down menu. It’s quite likely that this line will present itself elsewhere later in the week. Books like Bodoglife.com are good for offering extra valuable points on underdogs.

My Play
Troy +17.5 -114 (Pinnacle) 1.14u to win 1u

Advice should this line not be available later in the week: This is a 1u play at +17 or better. It’s a ½ unit play at +15 to +16.5. No play at worst than +15.

Florida State @ Boston College -6 | My prediction Boston College wins by 8

Florida State continues to have turn over problems and this week they head to Boston College whose defense is approaching a million pick offs this season.

Let’s break down the game a bit:

When Boston College has the ball they should be able to move it well through the air but will struggle to run against one of the divisions best run defenses. They’ll be able to run the ball better however than Florida State will be able to run against them.

When Florida State has the ball they will almost be forced to be on dimensional. They have a good passing game that ranks a bit better than the Eagles pass defense does but in rushing they’re clearly out matched. The Seminoles benched/former starting QB Xavier Lee, who was the more mobile of the QB’s, actually hurts a bit as he might have been the better choice to face this BC defense, however with him being turnover prone its probably a wash.

Advantage offense on both sides over their opponents defense with Boston College having a slight overall edge.

Turnovers are the kicker in this game Florida States offensive statistics have not translated so far this season into the type of points you would expect from a team with their states. Turnovers hurt them and considering Boston College defenders have preformed well as receivers this year this is a huge edge to Boston College.

Up to this point I favor Boston College by 3.5 points on a Neural Field.

Next take the consideration that Boston College is at home and has had 2 more day of rest/preparation then Florida State has an I’ll give BC a 7 (maybe even 7.5) point edge in this game.

The fact that BC needed an onside kick to win last week is a huge bonus for us this week as fans are left to wonder how good this BC team is. I feel that perhaps BC value depreciated a little bit last week and this is why we only need to lay 6 points instead of 7 points.
I would lean Boston College at -7 but at -6 I’ll take them for a unit.

My play:
Boston College -6 -110 (bookmaker.com) 1.1u to win 1u

Advise should this line not be available later in the week: Take Boston College -6.5 or better for 1 unit. At -7 then but a half point using Bet Jamaica or TheGreek where buying off the 7 is possible for ½ a point is available at 10 cent. In summary I recommend Boston College -6.5 -120 or better.

Oregon State +15 @ USC – My prediction USC wins by 11
USC played the Ducks last week better than I expected they would as I really felt the Ducks would win this game by 3 scores. Even with that said the Trojans continue to have problems with turnovers and penalties which are really not consistent with a Pete Carroll coached USC team over the years. I think the Trojans are good fade material as long as they continue to be favored by more than two touchdowns. In their last 5 games they dominated only one of them and that one was against a 1-7 Norte Dame team. Oregon State has been playing well and while they’re out matched in this game they’re a team with a lot of heart and fight in them and I think they will work hard to keep this game close and will do so with success.
This match up favors the defense for both sides:

When USC has the ball there decent rushing game has to face the #2 overall rush defense in the league. There pass offense has a slight edge over Oregon State’s pass defense however those numbers have been really inflated based on performances in 2 games. Overall the match up is really close and Oregon State should do a good job stopping them. Booty is expected to return this week which his experience should give USC more of an edge then the close match up I expect but we’re dealing with a 15 point margin here and I think we got some room to spare on this one, even with Booty back under center.

When Oregon State has the ball they are very much out matched facing a Trojans defense that is sound all the way around. They should struggle to put up a lot of points in this game unless they can get lucky thanks to short fields from turnovers or hitting a few big fluke plays.

I can see USC being favored by 9.5 maybe even 10 in this game, but laying 15 points even at home is just to many.

I’ll take the Beavers +15 in this one.

My play:
Oregon State Beavers +15 -105 (Pinnacle) 1.05u to win 1.1u

Advise should this line note be available later: Ducks are worth a 1u play at +15 or better or worth a ½ unit at +11.5 to +13.5. Anything less than that they are a no play.

Two Team 6 point Teaser +100
Its not often I recommend teasers in college football but this week we got ourselves an exception. We’re going to tease perhaps the best two teams in the country down to a 1 and 1.5 point favorite.

Teaser Leg #1 Oregon -1 My Prediction Oregon wins by 6

Oregon Ducks (#4 in the BCS) faces their biggest test of the season this week when the Pac-10’s only undefeated team the Arizona State Sun Devils (#5 in the BCS) visit them for a game this week.

Its is amazing how close these two teams match up with each other with no real significant edge to either side in terms of match up. This is a big reason why I am not comfortable with needing to lay the 7 points but do expect Oregon will win this game 75% of the time at home.

The real edges 3 in this game that make up the kickers are:

#1 Oregon has one of the best home field advantages in all of college football.
#2 Dixon can sell the option offense better than anyone in college football.
#3 Carpenter has a sprained thumb but will still start this Saturday despite the injury

Teasing this down to -1 has plenty of value right now and significantly more than the -290 money-line and -7 spread currently offered.

Teaser Leg #2 LSU -1.5 My Prediction LSU by 7
The LSU Tigers head out on the road to face Alabama. Personally I think LSU is a tad bit overrated as they’ve shown quite a few flashes of weakness this season but in this game I expect them to walk away big and get back into the National Championship title hunt.

When LSU has the ball they should have some mixed success passing the ball which will open up for great success running the ball.

When Alabama has the ball they will struggle as their offense is clearly outmatched by the LSU defense.

I have LSU as a 10 point favorite in this game on a neural field with nothing else considered.
Both teams are coming off a bye week so that’s for the most part a wash. Both teams should be well prepared coming into this match up.

As I’m working on this right up I see a news alert that Perrilloux was arrested earlier tonight for a bar confrontation and might be out Saturday. Even if this is the case I don’t feel it affects the teaser play that much. Yeah the Flynn/ Perrilloux sharing time at QB was nice but Flynn should be able to handle this game on his own.

7.5 point is far to much to lay on the road to a good SEC team which makes me prefer the teaser. Really the teaser has more value then the -7.5 spread or on the current moneyline being offered on LSU in this game.

My Play
2 Team 6 point Teaser +100 (Pinnacle) Oregon -1, LSU -1.5 - 1.00u to win 1.00u

Note: Make sure to place this bet at a site that offer +100 on two team 6 point teasers for college only. Its standard the pricing is -110 when a pro game is involved but many sites offer +100 on 2 team 6 point teasers when only college teams are selected.

Advice if this line is not available later in the week: As long as both teams can be teased to -2.5 or less while paying even money (+100) then I recommend this play

One half unit play:
UCONN -2.5
If it was not for the fact this is a typical let down type game for UCONN and a typical bounce back type game for Rutgers I would avoid this one, but right now I’ve chose to ride UCONN until they give me a reason not to.

My Play
UCONN (TheGreek)-2.5 | 0.55 u to win 0.5u