UFC 76 Predictions/Analysis (Odds courtesy of Pinnaclesports.com)

Main Event: Chuck Liddell (-311) vs. Keith Jardine (+281)

While no championships will be at stake for the Main Event of UFC 76, it promises to be a very exciting tilt. With both combatants coming off devastating 1st round knockout losses (Liddell to Quinton Jackson at UFC 71, and Jardine to Houston Alexander earlier that same night), these fighters will be looking to re-establish themselves within the upper ranks of the Light Heavyweight division. Had both men won their bouts at UFC 71, this main event could have been for the UFC title rather than a gateway to another shot for Liddell.

Many fights are hyped up to be a “stand-up-and-throw-‘em” brawl, but this one essentially should be nothing else. Both fighters are known for their striking abilities, with the only difference being that Jardine is known for coming forward and pressing while the Iceman is known for counterpunching and sidestepping overaggressive opponents in order to land the knockout blow. Jardine has claimed to be the more well-rounded fighter than Liddell in terms of his ground game and wrestling, but many of Chuck’s previous opponents have made the same claim only to fall in defeat. Liddell stands and slugs it out, and there is no real other way to fight this man. I don’t see this fight reaching the ground. The fight will start with both men on their feet, and end with one on his feet, and one on his back.

With many of the recent UFC events resulting in mammoth upsets, I see this one breaking the trend. Jardine will come forward looking to land a big shot, and Liddell should be able to back-pedal, sidestep, and land the big, looping hook that he is famous for. Unless Chuck inexplicably leaves himself wide open for a takedown by over-commiting, he should emerge victorious. Jardine is talented, but at +281 it’s just not worth it.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (-346) vs. Forrest Griffin (+316)

Shogun, the Pride 2005 Grand Prix Winner, finally makes his much anticipated UFC debut against The Ultimate Fighter Season One winner, Forrest Griffin. Griffin, known as a fighter who loves to stand and bang, has undeniable toughness and keeps coming for the entire three rounds. He also has shown some ability with submissions, and a near-unbreakable spirit. Rua, however, definitely has the more impressive resume with wins over Ricardo Arona, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, and current LHW champion Quinton Jackson just to name a few. He is known for highlight-reel knockouts via head stomps and soccer kicks, which may provide Shogun with his only problems. You see, manoeuvres such as these are forbidden by UFC rules. Also, as Mirko Cro-cop found out, the allowance of elbows in the UFC poses a bigger problem for a fighter inexperienced with them as one might think. However, he should be able to adapt and defeat Griffin on his way to what will no doubt be title contention. Having said that, laying a bet on Griffin at +316 does have some value to it, if for no other reason than Shogun will be fighting outside of his realm of familiarity. While this is a bad fight on paper for Griffin, I’m feeling that he might just have landed his fight with Shogun at the perfect time. I acknowledge that Rua is the superior fighter, but the stars might align for Forrest on Saturday. I pick Griffin to pull off the upset.

Jon Fitch (-121) vs. Diego Sanchez (+111)

This is the closest match on paper of the night. Fitch, riding his impressive 13 fight win streak, faces Sanchez, fresh off his first career loss to Josh Koscheck at UFC 69. This fight may have future welterweight title implications, so look for both guys to come out hard. While have demonstrated the ability to finish fights, look for this one to go the distance, and be extremely tough for the judges to call. Sanchez has the advantage in the fact that he has faced slightly better competition, but Fitch is likely the better striker and wrestler. Sanchez did not look very impressive against Koscheck, and look for Fitch to carry the dominant position regardless of where the fight goes. Fitch by unanimous decision.

Tyson Griffin (-161) vs. Thiago Tavares (+151)

In all likelihood, these two warriors could be receiving the “Fight of the Night” bonus at the end of the card. Griffin is a very strong and versatile lightweight, with a very impressive 9-1 record. He is a great wrestler, and his recent fights have been some of the more exciting in recent memory. At the other side of the Octagon, Tavares sports an unblemished 13-0 record, albeit against weaker competition. His jiu-jitsu is outstanding, but I don’t think he’ll be able to able to catch Tyson in a submission. Griffin’s cardio is too good, and he has great ground and pound. Factor that in with his excellent submission defence, and you have the best value on the card. Tyson Griffin at -161 is a great bet.

Note: UFC 76 takes place this Saturday September 22, 2007 with the first bout scheduled for a 7:10 PM EST start. The full card can be wagered on online at Pinnacle Sports.