I’ve been stressing all week over this Saints @ Colts 2007 NFL Season opener. Let me just say I’m glad I’m running a free picks blog and not working as a professional tout. I don’t see enough value anywhere on the board tonight.

I’m absolutely pumped the NFL season is here and I’ve already selected 2 sure fire plays for this coming weekend. I’ll be releasing those closer to game time as I’m going fully against the grain on these two plays.

So, regarding tonights game:

Most likely the Colts win the game by a TD and the game goes under. The problem is that I don’t see enough value to pull the trigger on either of those plays. In fact the Saints moneyline appears to have more value to me then taking the Colts with them needing to win by a touch down.
Notice I mentioned a small lean on the under? Of course you noticed, this is the Colts verses Saint how could this game possibly go under?

Game plan, that’s why. Sean Payton is a smart guy and he knows while his team is generally extremely aggressive on both offence and defense the last thing in the world he wants to do is get into a shoot out with the Colts, plus think about the Colts history of ineffectiveness stopping the run look for the Saints to rush the ball a lot more tonight as well as run a fair number of options plays. The Saints want to move the ball down the field while eating clock. Yes Drew is going to take his shots down the field and we know he can make some big plays. I just don’t see this game being a complete point scoring clinic. Whichever side has the lead should want to shorten this game up with both knowing the potency of their opponents offense. Also with the Saints agressive come at you, rush hard, high risk defensive approach Manning will need to get rid of the ball on the short drop a bit more often than he is used to. Still look for some big plays though from the Colts coming from yards after the catch The one thing you can count on is the Colts will come out firing in the first half.. as the game progresses this is likely to slow down.

Ok, Ok, I’m almost selling myself on betting the Under here. I’m not going to do that though. Come on this is the Saints vs the Colt this total could reach 80 points.

I had to bet on this game, like I had a free play credit expiring today, I’d go Saints ML and under the posted total. I think the most likely outcome though the Colts cover by a TD.

In my opionion the lowest value betting options are the Colts moneyline and the Saints spread. If you must pick a side go the opposite by selecting either the Saints moneyline or the Colts spread.

Just to state it hear clear for tracking purposes, I am making no NFL wagers on tonight’s games.