Coming off a 5-1 day in college football where I did not take a single team that was favored by more than 1 point. I’m doing the exact same in the NFL this week on straight plays plus on a teaser.

Let’s start with our teaser play.

2 Team 6 point teasers at BetPop at +100
Bears @ Lions +8.5
Patriots -1 @ Bengals

This is not a basic strategy teaser because the Patriots do not meet the criteria, but its still a teaser I feel has significant value.

As far as the Pats go, I think the line should really be -6.5 but the sportsbooks are scared that to much action will poor on the Pats if they put this line out. With this line of thinking it should mean that the Bengals are an auto play but I have a big problem with both sides of that bet. For starters I never recommend taking an AFC team on the road with 7 points of chalk. The second issue is that I also can’t justify backing a team who can not stop the pass and is playing against Mr Tom Brady when his RB is injured and he has many of the best weapons in the league surrounding him. Teasing the Pats down basically to a pick seems like the only sensible play on this game.

As far as the Lions side goes, this end is a basic strategy teaser and the public is loving the “Bears minus Grossman” thing. I think the Lions have a decent chance to win this game outright so getting them up and past the key numbers of 3 and 7 is obviously big.

I’m risking 1u to win 1u on this teaser.

Now on to the straight plays.

Packers -1 @ Vikings
This is the one square pick I’ll allow myself for the week. All the data says the Vikings are clearly the right side here, but I believe if Farve throws a TD pass he gets the win. This team has all the right chemistry and they know that their leader deserves to walk off the field with a win when he breaks the most coveted record a QB can break. Not only does his team believe he deserves the win but so does his coaches, the league, the officials and maybe even in the back of Minny players coaches and fans somewhere inside them they know it to. Despite his poor performances in Minny in the past, the intangible in this game is the Farve breaking the record and the respect his teammates have for him to want to step it up a notch and get this man the win. This game is already close on paper with a clear lean on Minny but in the end Farve gets the win. I believe this will be the case, although I would not be surprised if Farve does not throw a TD pass and the Vikins win the game (This is a long shot but might happen).
1.09u to win 1u (Pinnacle)

Chiefs +12.5 @ Chargers
This is this weeks BSP picks. It’s so ugly it has to win, if for no other reason I bet this because of its BSP value. There is another reason though that I’ve been preaching since week 2 of this NFL season, The Chargers deserve little “carry-over” respect from last season. If you want to know why then read my entries from previous weeks.
1.1u to win 1u (Bodog)

Raiders +4 at Dolphins
One of the things I did at the beginning of the season was to try and figure out which teams were candidates for the number 1 overall pick in the next NFL draft. Right up on the top of my list was the Miami Dolphins as my some what bold prediction on which team would most likely finish with the worst record in the league. That shows what my opinion of the Dolphins was to start the season, but I think just about everyone expected they would go 0-3 and then win this game against the Raiders. I’m actually beginning to question though if they will win this game. Oakland came very close to pulling off a win in Denver and then got a home win against the browns in week 2. I believe playing at Denver, is much harder than playing at Miami this season. Daunte Culpepper gets a second chance to play in Miami and though he is coming off a forgettable season he is a veteran QB and is reportedly at full health. I’m not sure which Culpepper shows up for the game but I do like the fact we have some shot he returns in his old form. I would be betting the Raiders this week no matter who is behind center, the fact that Thomas might be out is a huge plus. I predict Raiders win this game out right but I can’t pass on the value of 4 points in what should be a close game.
1.1 to win 1u (Bodog)

Cardinals +6.5
I don’t care if Kurt and Matt is under center in this game. The Cardinals are a very talented team who many had high expectations for going into last season. The team ended up having chemistry issues between themselves and their coaching staff and could not shake off the let down. Just when everyone is writing off the Cardinals they have shown up for the 07 season and played 3 quality games of which they could of won any one of them. They are 1-2 in the record column but in their minds they are now a team with something to prove and I think they go on and continue to prove it. If any combo in the history of the NFL might mean having two QB things being a good thing it’s the Leinart/Warner combination. The reason is because Warner is mature and will not be put off by the fact that Matt is a Baby, even though he is a baby competition brews improvement and improvement is a recipe towards greatness. Warner can take this situation without problem, looks of Leinart to step up big time. This is great because he knows Kurt is not really on his back for his job, he is the long term QB in AZ and Warner is going to be there now to help him develop. I not only believe this idea of two QBs could work, I actually love it in this spot. I think Pittsburg on the roads need to win by 7 to cover the spread is one bite that will be to big for them to chew.
1.1 to win 1u (Bodog)

YTD Record on posted NFL plays:  8wins & 5 losses for +4.47 units of profit.

Stay tuned for potential half time plays as well as a potential Sunday night play which I’ll post as edits below this sentence as they are made. No Guarantee I’ll make any put its a good possibility.