Lets start off with 2 NFL picks that I’ve felt good about all week and have been waiting to place at the best line possible.

New York Jets +6.5 at home against the Patriots (+109 @ Matchbook)

First of all the money is heavily on New England here; The Pats are everyones preseason pick to go all the way.

Without needing to say anything further: NEVER bet a road favorite opening week in the NFL. The home dog and heavy public action on the Pats is enough to make this a play on the Jets for sure, but here is some more thoughts:

The Patriots have a history of playing division games close. The Jets defenses has improved some this year and while I don’t consider them to be better than the Patriots I still do consider them a decent team who does have a shot at making the post season.

The Patriots receivers have not played in a regular season game together yet, Randy Moss is getting into a real game for the first time in a year (if you count Raiders games as real games that is, otherwise its been much longer). No Harrison, No Seymour. There are just to many factors here against the Pats.

Take the Jets with the points at the best odds possible. You won’t be disappointed.

Falcons +3 at Vikings (+104 Pinnacle)

It seems not many are giving the Falcons a chance this season. With a young coaching staff and a mediocre QB and all thats happened in the off season with Michael Vick who could possibly think Atlanta has any shot this year?

I personally give Atlanta a 50/50 shot in making the play offs right now. I don’t think they’ll go deep but in the NFC anything is posible.

Joey Harrington has shown signs of greatness at times while his carear stats are only mediocre. For the first time in his career he is “The man” for a team that has some shot of playing in the post season. With their division fairly week this year, I’m not expecting much out of Carolina or Tampa Bay, I think the playoffs are posible for this team.

Minnesota is really nothing special this is a team that set records for the fewest TD and 3rd down conversions in franchise history.

Atlanta always starts the season strong, while Minnesota backers have lost bad over the past 10 games.

I think this line should be a pick, 1.5 at best. Atlanta getting a field goal at +104 in a game they could very likely win outright is enough to make this a strong play.

1 unit on each game.

Disclaimer: While I’ve had 5 winning seasons in a row including increasing profit each of the past 3 season I have a history of getting off to a slow start. If it was not for this history I would likely be betting 2 units on the Jets and 1.5 units on the Falcons.