There are some great NFL match ups this week. I’m looking forward to watching these games and seeing how it all unfolds. While I’ve been eyeballing a ½ dozen games here I ended up finding only 2 plays so far I see enough value to bet.

Play #1 (This is a 2 team 7 point teaser)

Steelers -3 @ home against the Bills
Ravens -2.5 @ home against the Jets

This is a 7 point teaser placed at Bet Jamaica -130. If the Steelers/Bills push the entire play is immediately graded no action, we won’t need to wait for the outcome of the second game.
I shopped this one really hard at a lot of sportsbooks. There are a few others there that offer 7 point teasers at -120 but all of them had the lines shaded to prevent this same play at their more attractive pricing.

For those interested in learning more about profitable teaser betting as well as the math for calculating break even percentages see my article in betting strategies on football teasers.

Here is some quick math on this particular one.
We are laying -130 so we need this teaser to win about 56.52% of the time to break even on it.

Both will need to win just over 75% of the time for this to be break even. (0.75×0.75=56.25)
We need something like 75.10% win percentage on each individual bet to reach the 56.52% break even amount.

So when evaluating the value of this particular teaser, I compared the pricing of ten different sportsbooks to determine the true odds of each team winning with no spread and no juice involved to be:
Steelers 82.61%
Ravens 81.31%

I won’t go deep into the match here but I had to do some calculations to come up with a estimated % based on the -3 and -2.5 the teams need to win by.
Steelers -3 takes the estimated true odds they win down to 75.1% (exactly as the true odds needed for break even)
Ravens -2.5 takes the win% down to 75.5% a little over the break even odds I need.

(If anyone is interested in how I came up with these numbers I would be happy to discuss, I used past data to calculate the value of the 3 points in these particular games and can show my long math upon request).

Now the edge on this teaser is nothing to get super excited about; however the method I used to calculate the actual likeliness each leg wins is extremely conservative. There are two strong arguments that could be made to show the true odds are 2% and 4% better than what is represented here, but those arguments are some what weak. Basically, to keep it simple, lets just say this is a small edge I’m willing to bet. We’re getting two heavy favorites with a little bit better than no juice. It’s not often the opportunity to do so comes up on such heavy favorites.

That’s all for now on this teaser which to recap is
2 Team 7 Point Teaser of Ravens -2.5 & Steelers -3 *1unit

Play #2
I’ve got to go with the Titans +7.5 at home here over the Colts. This is a classic home underdog play where 75% of the bets are going on the road favorite. Historically the underdog has won 55% of the time in this exactly situation. With +7.5 -120 pricing I need to win 54.55% of the time to break even, This is enough to make this play +EV however it gets better. Home teams with a spread of +7 have historically pushed 5.7% of the time. Seeing as +7 is the consensus line and I’ve already bought off this line for ½ a point additional I’ve picked up an extra 5.7% chance to win rather than push. This bet without question has significant positive expectation and regardless of personal opinion on the game it should be played every time…

Titans +7.5 -120 *1 unit (I bough half a point at Bet Jamaica to reach this line – I believe the same price is also available at 5 Dimes.).

Add on Plays:

These picks here I’ll post as I make them. I am super busy today so will have no time for write ups.

Packers +0.5 for the 2nd half.

Bengals -6 for 2nd half.

4PM Games added here at 3:50 (sorry for the late post)

Cowboys -3 -115 (had to buy 1/2 a point at Bet Jam who had the line at -3.5 +105)