I’m releasing a 2 unit play for this Saturday which deserves its very own post in this blog. The game were looking at is Iowa +7 at Wisconsin. This game opened at Bookmaker.com with the Badgers being a 9.5 point favorite. It did not take long for the sharps to jump all over Iowa and bet them down to being only a 7.5 favorite the next day. Most sportsbooks that opened their college football lines up for betting on Monday or Tuesday started the number at Badgers -8 or -7.5 where the line stayed until the public action started to poor in on Hawkeyes during the early part of the day on Friday.

Popular Sports betting forums such as 2+2, TheRX, SBR, EOG had discussions on this game and it was hard initially to decide which side the squares were backing as it seemed pretty well mixed.

Based on the line movement it would appear that the public is heavily leaning on the Hawkeyes but after watching stat trackers this evening it does not appear this is actually the case. The public is very likely big on the Badgers while the early sharps were big on the Hawkeys at +8 or better but now are divided around the 7.

In any case, in this game, bookmakers did not make a mistake. While Iowa might be a mathematically be the correct play at +8 or better and a neutral play to the +7, there is no question that getting the badgers -6.5 on this game is a great play, even at -120.

I think a lot of less experienced professional bettors, semi sharps, will be capping this game tomorrow with incomplete information in regard to action history and leans. This game was a steam play on Friday, had bait and switch suspicion, and does have some some divided lean on both side depending on the # involved. I think too many will use the logic of: “Wisconsin is the square play so Iowa must be the sharp one”. This is a dangerous pattern a lot of semi sharps fall into is giving to much credit to which was the public is going. In the game we are discussing I honestly believe the lean percentage are very much irrelevant.

$ for $ this game is probably pretty well split and has the potential to be a good money maker for the bookmakers.

For those not familiar with the bait and switch: Sharp bettors begin to notice when their action is getting to much respect and they keep the books a bit more honest, or get them on their toes at the very least, now and then by pulling in moderately large bets on the side they don’t plan to back while later changing sides through the use of a syndicate. While this tactic is rare it does happen a few times each season and usually happens when there is a sharp/public alliance (meaning the sharps know they will likely be on the same side as the public).

With there being some inconsistent betting patterns apparent here I suspect the books decided to protect themselves (perhaps out of confusion) by landing themselves to the same number of 7 on this games betting spread. They are likely to stay around this number and will only defer to balance action now. Don’t look for bookmakers to be sticking out their necks though a lean that involves using a public action driven odds shade.

With all this said, and to many of you I might not of said much, I think the absolute best play available on the entire NCAAF board right now is Badgers -6.5 -120.

This line is available at TheGreek. To get it you’ll need to click on multi selection then select the Badgers then click add ticket, and then click buy points. You’ll be buying ½ a point to get the badgers -6.5 @ -120.

I’m releasing this as a 2 unit play.

Let me close with this: Taking a sharp play at a non sharp line is foolish. While Iowa may or may not of been a sharp play at one time, the clear play now is the Badgers -6.5.

4 other NCAAF Week 4 Free Pick Winners Here